October 22nd, 2015.
South Front Analysis.
These videos from South Front provide an excellent analysis of what is happening in Syria and especially the Russian view of the situation and their intentions. These videos tell you precisely how Russia perceives the situation, what they intend to do and also provide a degree of detail about what is actually happening within the context of a highly partisan source.
International Military Review – Syria, Oct. 21, 2015
Foreign Policy Diary The Middle East Big Game Forecasting the conflict
International Military Review & Analysis – Syria-Iraq Oct. 19.10.2015
Assad in Moscow.
BREAKING: Assad in Moscow for flash talks with Putin
The Syrian President has ventured outside Syria for the first time since the insurgency began making a visit to Moscow. At face value this was simply a photo-op.
The body language of some of the participants indicated that Russia knows that Bashar al Assad is an incompetent leader and they are preparing to walk away from his leadership provided that the Syrian state is protected and preserved by his departure rather than it being the first step in its total collapse.
Because Bashar al Assad was handed the leadership dye to the deaths of first his brother, the anointed heir, and then his father, he never learned the skills required to survie as an autocratic leader.
Assad appears to be completely out of touch from his people, a fact illustrated when in the wake of the February 2011 Egyptian revolution Bashar al Assad remarked that it would “never happen in Syria.” as the Government was too popular.
This remark showed also that Assad had no sense whatsoever of the plot unfolding against his nation.
The incompetence of the leadership persists to the present day.
Small contingents of soldiers are sent to “hold out” in isolated bases where they are surrounded and frequently completely over run.
Syrian airbase overrun by al-Qaeda affiliates al-Nusra Front after two-year siege
Islamic State documents takeover of Syrian airbase | The Long War Journal
Islamic State Takes Over Syrian Military Air Base – Breitbart
The impact on morale of having a large base over run and the entire personnel executed is obvious.
There seems to be a paralysis born of fear of relaying bad news upwards.
The loss of a military base in a province long under insurgent control would not matter that much if the men and equipment were evacuated but frequently the jihadist will over run a base and there are military aircraft worth millions of dollars left behind along with hundreds and even thousands of soldiers.
A commander of any quality would either be realistic and evacuate, taking all the hardware with them or destroying it or provide the resources required to defend it properly.
The Russian are simply waiting for the right time to make a deal with the West that will preserve the integrity of the Syrian state at the expense of the Assad leadership in my opinion.
The propaganda that the Western media regurgitate daily about Assad is completely disngenuous and nayseating. Every time I hear the term “regime” I feel sick to my stomach.
It is neat the way they lobby to “save” people urgently at all costs and then forget them completely once their nation has been bombed into a failed state.
It is also really amusing the way they try to pontificate about the alleged war crimes of the adversaries or perceived adversaries of their bankster masters such as Assad but will never mention that every US President since Jimmy carter has been responsible for wide scale crimes against humanity.
The prima facie case against Barack Obama for crimes against humanity is every bit as strong as the case against Assad and the criminals of the Bush administration were murderers on an entirely larger scale than Obama and Assad combined.
The footage that is emerging from Syria is heavily filtered and politically mediated. None of the setbacks of the Syrian Army and their allies are depicted in the footage they provide. When things go wrong for them they simply cease reporting on that situation and move onto something else.
The insurgents also heavily filter the footage they release but the lack of a central structure and the hope to gain sympathy from the audience see them release footage that gives some idea of the troubles they are facing.
The combat videos become very monotonous and repetitive very quickly but these stand somewhat above the fray.
The whole posting videos footage of the war thing is becoming a little tired, this is a stop gap while a more thorough and researched analysis of this multi-layered and complex story is completed.
Suspected US drone spotted by Russian pilot in Syria
SU 25 Strikes al Nusra Front in al Ghab valley.
SU 24 attack Rendevous Point in Idlib.
The fightings in the suburbs of Damascus
Footage of Russian and Syrian air strikes in Kafr Nabudah Hama