Iran Signals Implicit Support for Assad Departure.

A poster of Syrian President Bashar al Assad agaisnt the desolation of war torn Syria. Image belongs to Getty Images.
A poster of Syrian President Bashar al Assad against the desolation of war-torn Syria. Image belongs to Getty Images. Joseph Eid took the photo.

April 26th, 2016.

Iran Signals Implicit Support for Assad Departure.

In a break from their long-held position, it appears that Iran is open to a deal that would see the Syrian President Bashar al Assad leave Syria as part of a formula to end the five-year Syrian war with a death toll  now estimated at 400,000.

Syria death toll likely as high as 400,000: UN envoy | Middle East Eye

This information emerged in a Press TV story posted on their you tube channel yesterday.

“Syria president rejected offer for resettlement in Iran”

This story, which must be taken seriously given the source, indicates that Iran is now willing to countenance Assad’s departure, after all, Iran could not have offered Assad refuge if they disagreed with his leaving.

As recently as April 10th senior Iranian spokesmen have stated that there would be no negotiation over the future of the Syrian President.

Syria War Update: Bashar Assad Removal Is ‘Red Line,’ Iranian Official Says

Iran official: Assad removal from Syria a ‘red line’ | The Times of Israel

This position, shared publicly by the Syrian government appears to have been one reason that the Geneva peace talks have never achieved anything so the apparent change in the Iranian position seems to indicate a broadening consensus that it may be in the best interests of Syria for a government of national unity to be formed without the President.

Betrayal?

Elements of the Iranian military and the Iran proxy Hezbollah have been involved in heavy combat in Syria and have taken severe casualties, judging by the funerals.

Many have stated correctly that it should be up to the Syrian people to decide Assad’s fate and many will see the shift in the Iranian position as a sell out and a betrayal, caving in to the demand for regime change after all this time.

Regime Change.

My understanding, is that when the Neoconservative chorus calls for regime change, this is merely a means to an end. The real goal is the destruction of the target state and the call for regime change is a ruse that is used as a vehicle to achieve this more sinister long-term goal.

The point is to demand the impossible and achieve the secondary goal on the back of the initial deliberately unrealistic demand for the leader to pack up and leave because Washington DC said so.

All of the war hype is focused on the “brutal dictator” and the idea that only if this one individual could be removed from power everything would be alright, childish nonsense in its own right but the real goal is the destruction of these states along the lines envisaged soon after 911 by the wonderfully malevolent Neoconservative US  official Paul Wolfowitz.

Before the onslaught in Iraq began in March 2003 the US President delivered an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein and his sons, “Saddam Hussein and his sons must leave Iraq within 48 hours. Their refusal to do so will result in military conflict.”  The US military would be entering Iraq even if Saddam chose to leave but:

“It is not too late for the Iraqi military to act with honor and protect your country by permitting the peaceful entry of coalition forces to eliminate weapons of mass destruction. Our forces will give Iraqi military units clear instructions on actions they can take to avoid being attacked and destroyed. I urge every member of the Iraqi military and intelligence services, if war comes, do not fight for a dying regime that is not worth your own life. “

When the US invaded Iraq the Iraqi military largely followed Bush’s advice and the invasion force was thus met with only limited resistance from loyalist political units while the bulk of the army stood down.

The Iraqi Government fell within weeks of the invasion as a result of this decision yet by May 2003 Paul Bremer, the ranking US civilian official in Iraq decided to disband the Iraqi Army.  This decision, Coalition Provisional Authority order number 2  was the cause of Iraq’s destruction as a nation-state and all the horror that followed until the present day.

So the Neoconservative goal is to destroy Syria entirely, the demand for Assad to leave is simply the impossible demand that masks the deeper goal. The same was true in Libya.

Conclusion.

If Assad’s departure is part of a process of forming a genuine government of national unity and thus ending the war and preserving the state this may be a worthy deal. It seems wrong that the authors of so much misery and destruction should be rewarded for their efforts but the first priority must be the preservation of life and the second the state.  Such is the chaos in Syria and the strength of the extremists of Al Nusra and ISIS that it is likely the insurgency will continue on its bloody way for several years even if there is a political deal and some type of unity government is formed.

The fate of Bashar al Assad is incidental when compared to the suffering and instability caused by the war and if Assad chose to leave his fate would be a far happier one than befell Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi.

Syria – South Front Analysis, Assad in Moscow and Raw War footage.

Still from South front video of area of north western Syrian Military Offensive.
Still from South front video of area of north western Syrian Military Offensive.

October 22nd, 2015.

South Front Analysis.

These videos from South Front provide an excellent analysis of what is happening in Syria and especially the Russian view of the situation and their intentions. These videos tell you precisely how Russia perceives the situation, what they intend to do and also provide a degree of detail about what is actually happening within the context of a highly partisan source.

International Military Review – Syria, Oct. 21, 2015

Foreign Policy Diary The Middle East Big Game Forecasting the conflict

International Military Review & Analysis – Syria-Iraq Oct. 19.10.2015

Assad in Moscow.

BREAKING: Assad in Moscow for flash talks with Putin

The Syrian President has ventured outside Syria for the first time since the insurgency began making a visit to Moscow. At face value this was simply a photo-op.

The body language of some of the participants indicated that Russia knows that Bashar al Assad is an incompetent leader and they are preparing to walk away from his leadership provided that the Syrian state is protected and preserved by his departure rather than it being the first step in its total collapse.

Because Bashar al Assad was handed the leadership dye to the deaths of first his brother, the anointed heir, and then his father, he never learned the skills required to survie as an autocratic leader.

Assad appears to be completely out of touch from his people, a fact illustrated when in the wake of the February 2011 Egyptian revolution Bashar al Assad remarked that it would “never happen in Syria.” as the Government was too popular.

This remark showed also that Assad had no sense whatsoever of the plot unfolding against his nation.

The incompetence of the leadership persists to the present day.

Small contingents of soldiers are sent to “hold out” in isolated bases where they are surrounded and frequently completely over run.

Syrian airbase overrun by al-Qaeda affiliates al-Nusra Front after two-year siege

Islamic State documents takeover of Syrian airbase | The Long War Journal

Islamic State Takes Over Syrian Military Air Base – Breitbart

The impact on morale of having a large base over run and the entire personnel executed is obvious.

There seems to be a paralysis born of fear of relaying bad news upwards.

Abandoned MIg war planes inside the Taquba Airbase after it was over run by ISIL in 2014.
Abandoned MIg war planes inside the Taquba Airbase after it was over run by ISIL in 2014.

The loss of a military base in a province long under insurgent control would not matter that much if the men and equipment were evacuated but frequently the jihadist will over run a base and there are military aircraft worth millions of dollars left behind along with hundreds and even thousands of soldiers.

A commander of any quality would either be realistic and evacuate, taking all the hardware with them or destroying it or provide the resources required to defend it properly.

The Russian are simply waiting for the right time to make a deal with the West that will preserve the integrity of the Syrian state at the expense of the Assad leadership in my opinion.

Wonderful Propaganda.

The propaganda that the Western media regurgitate daily about Assad is completely disngenuous and nayseating. Every time I hear the term “regime” I feel sick to my stomach.

It is neat the way they lobby to “save” people urgently at all costs and then forget them completely once their nation has been bombed into a failed state.

It is also really amusing the way they try to pontificate about the alleged war crimes of the adversaries or perceived adversaries of their bankster masters such as Assad but will never mention that every US President since Jimmy carter has been responsible for wide scale crimes against humanity.

The prima facie case against Barack Obama for crimes against humanity is every bit as strong as the case against Assad and the criminals of the Bush administration were murderers on an entirely larger scale than Obama and Assad combined.

Dead insurgents await burial in the Jobar district of greater Damascus.
Dead insurgents await burial in the Jobar district of greater Damascus.

Combat.

The footage that is emerging from Syria is heavily filtered and politically mediated. None of the setbacks of the Syrian Army and their allies are depicted in the footage they provide. When things go wrong for them they simply cease reporting on that situation and move onto something else.

The insurgents also heavily filter the footage they release but the lack of a central structure and the hope to gain sympathy from the audience see them release footage that gives some idea of the troubles they are facing.

The combat videos become very monotonous and repetitive very quickly but these stand somewhat above the fray.

The whole posting videos footage of the war thing is becoming a little tired, this is a stop gap while a more thorough and researched analysis of this multi-layered and complex story is completed.

Suspected US drone spotted by Russian pilot in Syria

SU 25 Strikes al Nusra Front in al Ghab valley.

SU 24 attack Rendevous Point in Idlib.

The fightings in the suburbs of Damascus

Footage of Russian and Syrian air strikes in Kafr Nabudah Hama