October 22nd, 2015.
South Front Analysis.
These videos from South Front provide an excellent analysis of what is happening in Syria and especially the Russian view of the situation and their intentions. These videos tell you precisely how Russia perceives the situation, what they intend to do and also provide a degree of detail about what is actually happening within the context of a highly partisan source.
International Military Review – Syria, Oct. 21, 2015
Foreign Policy Diary The Middle East Big Game Forecasting the conflict
International Military Review & Analysis – Syria-Iraq Oct. 19.10.2015
Assad in Moscow.
BREAKING: Assad in Moscow for flash talks with Putin
The Syrian President has ventured outside Syria for the first time since the insurgency began making a visit to Moscow. At face value this was simply a photo-op.
The body language of some of the participants indicated that Russia knows that Bashar al Assad is an incompetent leader and they are preparing to walk away from his leadership provided that the Syrian state is protected and preserved by his departure rather than it being the first step in its total collapse.
Because Bashar al Assad was handed the leadership dye to the deaths of first his brother, the anointed heir, and then his father, he never learned the skills required to survie as an autocratic leader.
Assad appears to be completely out of touch from his people, a fact illustrated when in the wake of the February 2011 Egyptian revolution Bashar al Assad remarked that it would “never happen in Syria.” as the Government was too popular.
This remark showed also that Assad had no sense whatsoever of the plot unfolding against his nation.
The incompetence of the leadership persists to the present day.
Small contingents of soldiers are sent to “hold out” in isolated bases where they are surrounded and frequently completely over run.
Syrian airbase overrun by al-Qaeda affiliates al-Nusra Front after two-year siege
Islamic State documents takeover of Syrian airbase | The Long War Journal
Islamic State Takes Over Syrian Military Air Base – Breitbart
The impact on morale of having a large base over run and the entire personnel executed is obvious.
There seems to be a paralysis born of fear of relaying bad news upwards.
The loss of a military base in a province long under insurgent control would not matter that much if the men and equipment were evacuated but frequently the jihadist will over run a base and there are military aircraft worth millions of dollars left behind along with hundreds and even thousands of soldiers.
A commander of any quality would either be realistic and evacuate, taking all the hardware with them or destroying it or provide the resources required to defend it properly.
The Russian are simply waiting for the right time to make a deal with the West that will preserve the integrity of the Syrian state at the expense of the Assad leadership in my opinion.
The propaganda that the Western media regurgitate daily about Assad is completely disngenuous and nayseating. Every time I hear the term “regime” I feel sick to my stomach.
It is neat the way they lobby to “save” people urgently at all costs and then forget them completely once their nation has been bombed into a failed state.
It is also really amusing the way they try to pontificate about the alleged war crimes of the adversaries or perceived adversaries of their bankster masters such as Assad but will never mention that every US President since Jimmy carter has been responsible for wide scale crimes against humanity.
The prima facie case against Barack Obama for crimes against humanity is every bit as strong as the case against Assad and the criminals of the Bush administration were murderers on an entirely larger scale than Obama and Assad combined.
The footage that is emerging from Syria is heavily filtered and politically mediated. None of the setbacks of the Syrian Army and their allies are depicted in the footage they provide. When things go wrong for them they simply cease reporting on that situation and move onto something else.
The insurgents also heavily filter the footage they release but the lack of a central structure and the hope to gain sympathy from the audience see them release footage that gives some idea of the troubles they are facing.
The combat videos become very monotonous and repetitive very quickly but these stand somewhat above the fray.
The whole posting videos footage of the war thing is becoming a little tired, this is a stop gap while a more thorough and researched analysis of this multi-layered and complex story is completed.
Suspected US drone spotted by Russian pilot in Syria
SU 25 Strikes al Nusra Front in al Ghab valley.
SU 24 attack Rendevous Point in Idlib.
The fightings in the suburbs of Damascus
Footage of Russian and Syrian air strikes in Kafr Nabudah Hama
6 thoughts on “Syria – South Front Analysis, Assad in Moscow and Raw War footage.”
James, that really helped me get it. Thanks. Must pray into your analysis which is calm and clear. Disturbed about the Syrian Army losses and failure of leadership. I should watch. Perhaps raw footage is what we should keep our eye on? I tend not watch much of anything, or at least so much, seems an instinctive maneuver. Did watch chess and top players. One for considerations to come.
Assad has been used to polarize the country but also unite. It seems now Russia will want his replacements found and I pray Syria are able to make this happen. Begin to make a win and pull the breaks on and rebuilding the land they love. Somewhere refuges would like to go.
Many thanks for that Mark. I also hope that Syria becomes ” Somewhere refuges would like to go.” but it seems that it is going to be bllood, fire rubble and death for a long, long time. Thanks for comment.
Like Mark, I find your analysis interesting, James. But then I had another thought as well. Given that everyone is so treacherous, I wondered as to whether Russia was going into Syria with what appears to be USA objections while in reality, a mere move to let Russia wipe out a fair amount of Arab/Muslim population so that Iran has far fewer allies and resources. who does Russia install as a replacement would be interesting. Right now, I am wondering about Hillary and Obama staying in office. I had a thought while writing my article, which by the way, is done for now, till the next news event comes along in a few days or so.
Satan would prefer the most ruthless of all the candidates. so I pondered and said, who is the most ruthless? It came to me. Hillary, hands down. Oh my, really? There is alot that can happen between now and then. you’ll see that in the article. There is one section near the end that i just added. It offers some very unique possibilities if it is true. Its about attacks on the press and free speech. We know big things are coming but they are keeping us guessing and nearly anything is possible at this point. It could turn on a dime. treachery is so hard to predict. But treachery is what is most expected.
Thanks truth1now, your article is extremely interesting (Europe video aside). I am extremely confident that the next President will not be a Democrat, check the alternating Rep/Dem patter that goes at least back to 1952 with the short term of Jimmy carter and longer term of Bush/ Reagan the only interruption, it happens for a reason- the country is being sold out, harvested and destroyed so people always blame the person who was in power for the last eight years and vote opposite. (why they win a second term is a tougher question) Hillary may well be the most ruthless, she is in my view a ranking member of organised crime in the US and an agent of the Shadow Government. She has been a professional criminal basically since her days at the Arkansas Law firm that up to it’s neck in money laundering and murder. She is perfect to be president in many ways but people do not like her, none of the other Democrats have any chance, even Biden would have had a better chance than Hillary but he would also have lost.
This is a very good video from James Corbett about the US and other elections that made an impact on me. The Shadow Government Blackmails Everyone (Why Voting Doesn’t Matter)
More generally and regarding your “It has started” article, I agree with you but I am of the (clearly deluded) belief that I am supposed to try in my tiny and insignificant way to PREVENT the cataclysm that is rolling towards us with a sense of inevitability. I see the parts being put in place as though by a hidden hand as though people are being guided somehow too. It will only take one nasty incident between Russia and either Israel or Turkey or the US and things could happen very, very quickly.
Many thanks for your work and your comment truth1now.
Your assessment of Hillary seems right, but then again, people did not like W, either, but he got elected twice. You see, over here, dead people can vote as can dogs, cats, and pet mice, too. And then there are our voting machines that and rig just about anything. It matters not what people really vote. We got an algorithm for nearly anything.
And your theory on republicans getting in makes total sense, but I still fear ruthlessness. I think cracking down on free speech is where the USA is headed.
Thanks truth1now, your point about the electoral system is a good one and Hillary may end up being President. It could easily happen. All of the dirty tools available to Hillary would also presumably be in the hands of Jeb Bush and I still expect Jeb Bush to become the next US president but genuinely hope that I am wrong as Jebs foreign policy team comprises a lot of the people who seem to have played a role in 911. Thanks for comment.