January 4th, 2020.
US Kills Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad Airstrike.
Iran Promises to Avenge Slain Qods Force Commander.
On January 3rd 2020 the US military- acting under the direct orders of the President, assassinated the celebrated commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds force Major General Qassem Solemaini near the Baghdad International Airport.
As commander of the Quds force Soleimani was responsible for directing the external operations of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.
This entailed support and co-ordination with the forces of the “Axis of Resistance” across the Middle East/West Asia region with affiliated and supported militant groups spanning from Pakistan and Afghanistan in the east across to Lebanon via Syria and Iraq all the way to the Mediterranean,plus Gaza and Yemen to the south.
A short checklist of Qassem Soleimani’s major achievements:
Played a central and crucial role supporting and co-coordinating the military operations of the Governments of Syria and Iraq in their successful battles to destroy ISIS.
This track record of success made Qassem Soleimani a hero to millions and a despised enemy of both the Zionists and the “garden variety” imperialists of the West, intertwined as they are.
It is believed that Israel made at least one attempt on his life in recent years.
In the immediate aftermath of the attack the Supreme Leader of Iran vowed to avenge the death stating that “a severe retaliation awaits the criminals who painted their corrupt hands with his and his martyred companions’ blood last night.” (Source)
Therefore a cataclysmic broader armed conflict between the US and Iran now seems all but inevitable.
A day later the statement of the Iranian leader seems imprudent. The US has been seeking to destroy the government of Iran for decades, a direct attack on US interests in the region may enable this long-standing plot to come to fruition.
False Flags Ahoy!
The understandably bellicose statement from the Iranian leader mean that any of Iran’s many enemies merely have to attack an object belonging to the US anywhere in the world and the US will have the pretext that it craves to directly attack Iran.
In reality the initial response from Iran and her allies is to recognise that the attack in Baghdad was primarily a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. The US has killed a senior figure in the Iraqi military structure while purporting to be in Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government to support them in the fight against ISIS.
As the Saker points out in his analysis of the situation, the first course of action should be for the government of Iraq to evict the US military from their nation.
This should be done in a legal and transparent manner. The Iraqi parliament needs to formally vote to reject the ongoing US military presence in their nation.
If the US then fails to accede to the request of the Iraqi parliament, Iraqi forces would have no choice but to seek to forcefully evict the Americans.
But it must be hoped that it doesn’t come to that. Too many lives have already been lost on all sides.
As far as justifications go, none ring more empty than revenge, but many will claim that if such a flagrant violation is allowed to go unpunished, even greater crimes may follow. So the motivation for a response would be to restore deterrence.
World War 3?
The chances of either Russia or China becoming directly involved in armed conflict with the United States should open war break out are all but zero.
The chain of escalation initiated by the US may well lead to a major regional war, it may well lead to events that see oil prices skyrocket and crash the global economy but the chances of open global war involving the great powers are infinitesimal.
Neither Russia nor China have any interest in confronting the US directly, certainly not over Iran. Should a war break out they will seek to end the conflict in the UN and failing that may offer limited behind the scenes assistance to Iran.
It must be remembered that these powers are self-interested and they understand that every act of aggression only hastens the US loss of credibility in the world, de-facto boosting their own position without their having to lift a finger.
The US Government.
The reckless actions of the US government are not in the interests of the people of the United States or anywhere else. At this point it is clear that behind all the rhetoric to the contrary, a hopelessly compromised Israeli-Saudi asset sits in the White house.
The fact that the President chose to “celebrate” the extrajudicial murder of Qassem Soleimani by tweeting an image of the US flag was particularly galling.
It is likely that the event that triggered the current bout of escalation was not the attack by persons unknown on a US military base near Kirkuk on December 27th that left one US mercenary dead and four soldiers lightly wounded, but rather the naval exercises conducted by Russia, China and Iran starting on the same date in the Gulf of Oman and Indian Ocean.
As the unipolar moment that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union passes, the US feels compelled to over-assert itself- like a middle aged man buying a sports car as a sign of undiminished virility.
But the ill-considered and reckless nature of these actions-massacring anti-ISIS forces in the Syria Iraq border region along with the latest atrocity, only hastens the decline.
From Israel’s point of view there is a desperate need to “pump the Rube” before he goes bankrupt. While Israel has a strong relationship with both Russia and China, there is zero chance that either of those states will ever enjoy the type of relationship that Israel does with the US.
So if a major power is to be utilised to achieve the Israeli goal of destroying the Islamic Republic of Iran, they absolutely must achieve this before the US is comprehensively superseded by China and Russia.
The Prospects of US Success.
The arrival of Trump, clueless, presumably hopelessly compromised by his 15 plus year “friendship” with Jeffrey Epstein and even longer association with Ghislaine Maxwell in the White House sees them possibly on the verge of achieving what only four years ago seemed an impossible dream.
That’s not to suggest that there is a realistic prospect of the US actually invading Iran, such an operation is well beyond their military capabilities.
Their hope is that the combination of aerial bombing, sanctions and other hardships inflicted upon the Iranian people will enable a more pliant leadership to be installed in Iran.
A similar plot succeeded in 1953, when the CIA overthrew the moderate nationalist and democratically elected Iranian Prime Minister Mossadegh and replaced him with the puppet ruler the Shah, largely because Mossadegh’s policies threatened the interests of major Western oil companies.
It is not realistic that a similar scenario will succeed today, but the United States and Israel simply cannot tolerate independent nations in the middle east region, let alone those that are openly defiant-and will therefore strive to achieve this regardless of the human suffering inflicted on the world by these efforts.
The murder of Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al Muhadis and their colleagues may be the most dangerous step they have taken on this path, but it will not be the last.