Massive Strange Explosion in Southern Aleppo.

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An image of an explosion in as Safira Aleppo on the night of July 16th, 2016.
Another image of the as Safira explosion.
Another image of the as Safira explosion.
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Overhead inage of the as Safira defence installations.

July 18th, 2016.

Massive Strange Explosion in Southern Aleppo.

The Syrian city of as Safira, 25kms/16 miles south of Aleppo city was struck by a series of massive explosions overnight, the blasts took place at a large Syrian military production and weapons storage centre on the outskirts of as Safira.

Massive explosion rocks Army base in southeast Aleppo

The blasts were photographed 50 kilometres away and witnesses 60 kilometres away in Azaz claimed to have felt the blasts. The blasts created a mushroom cloud and there is a strange pulsing flashing in some of the footage. Several witnesses that the blast resembled a nuclear event.

Several tactical nuclear attacks of recent years have targeted weapons storage facilities, both in Yemen last year and in Syria in 2013, the choice of these targets for small scale nuclear attack enables a high degree of plausible deniability on the part of the perpetrators.

It remains unclear what has taken place in as Safira but whatever the origin there appears to have been a nuclear explosion and the unbelievably idiotic story promoted by certain pond life level propagandists that a helicopter carrying “tonnes” of explosives crashed and caused the explosion rather gives the game away.

It is highly unlikely that an aircraft could have delivered a missile to this site deep inland without being detected but a missile fired from a submarine or some other platform is entirely possible.

Initial images of the explosions in the defense plants in the city of as Safir.


Explosions in the defense plants as Safira

Dramatic footage of explosions at Syrian defence factory

Other Examples.

In the past several months the Russian Air force have unleashed a number of horrific new weapons on the jihadists of northern Syria.

There have been some very strange explosions caused by the Russian Air force during that time and this attack, from April again on an ammunition dump, in this case belonging to al Nusra in southern Aleppo is very, very reminiscent of a nuclear blast.

Russian airstrike targets ammo depot for al-Nusra in South Aleppo

This year, Saudi Arabia through proxies informed the world of their possession of nuclear weapons This was already an open secret as in 2015 Saudi Arabian air attacks on Yemen were unmistakable small nuclear explosions.

Saudi Arabia Tactical Nuclear Strike on Yemen (Neutron Bomb)

In 2013 Israel made it even more obvious when they attacked a Syrian military research site near Damascus at night when the unique character of the explosions are far easier to identify.

Israeli Nuclear Attack on Syria, All Known Footage

The Syrian Arab Army and their allies this week. on the Castillo road that is a ring around the north of Aleppo city
The Syrian Arab Army and their allies this week. on the Castillo road that is a ring around the north of Aleppo city
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Map highlights the Castillo highway that is the only road link between the insurgents in Eastern Aleppo city and the outer world.
Map of the Northern Aleppo battlefield shows the Syrian Army in control of a section of the al Castillo highway and also that the Syrian Army and their allies are very close to achieving a complete encirclement of the Aleppo insurgent pocket. (Source)

The Context of the War the SAA Cut the Castillo Highway.

Despite the Russian intervention the war is still a grinding battle of attrition however this week the Syrian military and their allies managed to cut the Castillo highway that runs in a semi circle north of Aleppo city. The achievement came after weeks of heavy fighting and terrible casualties on all sides.

The Castillo highway was the sole supply route for the rebel fighters who control eastern Aleppo city. The closure of the road has seen a series of frantic rebel counterattacks in order to reopen the road but these attempts have failed and at such a cost that one of the major factions Ahrar al Sham (Free men of Syria) have stated they will not send any more fighters to participate in what they see as a suicidal effort to reopen the essential supply line.

Russian jets swarm northern Aleppo as jihadists attempt to retake Castillo Highway

Pictures have now emerged of the Syrian Army on the road but the fierceness of the fighting was such that the initial goal was not to take the road but to take positions with artillery ranged upon the road making it impossible for the insurgents to use it. The Syrians achieved this from two separate areas and this is the vital thing.

Aleppo rebels trapped as Syrian Army cuts off main supply route

Hell Awaits the Serial Liars Along with their Death Squad Mercenaries.

You can always tell things are going badly for the jihadists because that is when the war party and their proxies begin complaining about human rights and expressing concern about human suffering.

When the pet maniacs they are still psychotically pretending are freedom fighters run amok and enter a village and commit mass murder, these unprincipled and morally bankrupt propagandists have not a word to say about it. It is good news to them, their “lads” are winning.

Al-Zara’s Massacre: the Syrian villagers were slaughtered by Ahrar Al-Sham’s mercenary-terrorists

Syrian villagers describe massacre by militant group spared from UN terror blacklist

Islamist rebels brag about Zara massacre

Syria: Twenty killed after al-Nusra Front shell Aleppo *GRAPHIC*

US backed AlQaeda linked rebels Massacre Civilians in #Syria

Only when their pet death squads are facing collapse to they trot out the familiar pathetic mantras about barrel bombs and feign concern for the civilians who have suffered so terribly in the war they have supported and promoted relentlessly for half a decade.

All of the people in the Western media, all of the people in the think tanks who previously supported the Iraq war and the destruction of Libya but remain impervious to the human cost of the propaganda they present and who still shamelessly pretend the bloodthirsty jihadist death squads of the empire are freedom fighters will burn in hell until the end of time if there is a scintilla of divine justice in this universe.

Russia Begins Withdrawal from Syria?

A small group of SU35s, Russia's most advanced war plane were deployed to Syria only weeks ago.
A small group of SU35s, Russia’s most advanced war plane were deployed to Syria only weeks ago.
Khmeimim airbase (also written Hmeymim‬) on Google Earth.
A South Frnt still shows the areas of control in Syria as of March 14th, 2016.
A South Frnt still shows the areas of control in Syria and south western Iraq as of March 14th, 2016.

March 16th, 2016.

Russia Announces Withdrawal of its Military from Syria.

On the eve of UN brokered peace talks, the Russian Government has made the shock announcement that they will  withdraw the “main part of their military grouping in the Syrian Arab Republic” beginning immediately.

The statement from the Kremlin does not say how many of the Russian Aircraft and troops will be withdrawn from Syria nor how long it would take but it has already started.

FIRST VIDEO: Russian warplanes leaving airbase in Syria

This is a very strange turn of events when it is considered that Russia was sending more warplanes to Syria less than a fortnight ago. South Front reported in early March that Russia had just sent several extra aircraft to the Syrian base and provided an updated inventory of the Russian Airforce in Syria.

South Front's updated inventory of Russian warplanes in Syria from early March, 2016. This indicates that the decision to begin to withdraw was taken in the past several weeks.
South Front’s updated inventory of Russian warplanes in Syria from early March, 2016. This indicates that the decision to begin to withdraw was taken in the past several weeks.

What Forces does Russia have in Syria?

The Russian Air force has stationed almost 100 aircraft in Syria, the estimates for the number of Russian troops in Syria range between 5 and 20,000. Whatever the number, Russian forces have not played a significant role in ground battles.

Officially, the Russian military have suffered three deaths during the Syrian operation, two on November 24th last year when Turkey shot down the Russian SU24 aircraft and another soldier died in the rescue effort and a soldier who died earlier this year as the result of a reported ISIS mortar attack.

There were also credible reports that a car bomb attack in Latakia claimed by Ahrar al Sham had killed at least ten Russian soldiers in late February.

Syrian rebels claim car bomb attack that killed Russian soldiers in Latakia – ARA News

The story disappeared but there were people on both sides telling neutral sources it happened.

Motives.

The Russian decision comes as a shock as they are a vital element of the loyalist coalition that is midway through several major operations.

The motives for this decision will become clear over time but it seems that Russia has decided to put its will towards ending the war in Syria.

It is possible that Russia is attempting to send a message to their Syrian Government allies that they must be flexible in their negotiations with the opposition.

In recent days the Syrian Foreign Minister stated that the status of the Syrian President Bashar al Assad was not up for negotiation. It is possible that Russia would like to see Assad and coterie head into exile as a way to end the war.

Future of Bashar al-Assad remains ‘red line’ as Syria peace talks begin

Russia has tended to be at least one step ahead of Western observers in recent years so only when we see what happens next will Russia’s intent become recognisable.

There are three obvious possibilities.

  1. This is a ruse designed to bolster the Geneva talks and Russia’s international image.
  2. The US and Russia have made a secret deal regarding Syria’s future that will end the war.
  3. Russia wants Bashar al Assad to leave Syria and is trying to make Assad understand that he must yield to the demands of the opposition and leave power.

My understanding is that Russia is perfectly happy to see Assad leave as they understand that the demand for his departure is merely an excuse for the destruction of Syria via a continuation of the war, their priority has clearly been the survival of the Syrian state and the Syrian army, under whatever leadership. If the war could be ended by his departure, in an orderly way it is highly likely that Russia would request that Assad leave Syria.

This is a provisional map of the ceasefire areas. The orange areas are government controlled. The green areas are under juhadist control and the ceasefire areas are in blue.
This is a provisional map of the ceasefire areas. The orange areas are government controlled. The green areas are under juhadist control and the ceasefire areas are in blue. The cessation proved more significant than the small blue sections of the map would indicate.

Brief Summary of the Military Situation in Syria.

International Military Review – Syria–Iraq, Mar. 14, 2016

International Military Review – Syria, Mar. 16, 2016

A Cessation of Hostilities?

Around one hundred small insurgent groupings chose to participate in the partial ceasefire. The cessation did not apply and was never intended to apply towards either ISIS nor the local al Qaeda franchise the al Nusra front. Another large grouping Ahrar al Sham chose not to participate in the cessation due to the fact that the al Nusra front, their close ally, were excluded.

Ahrar al Sham says no cessation of hostilities while Nusra is being attacked : syriancivilwar

Therefore the only insurgent groups of any significance to participate was the Jaish al Islam, largely based in the outer Damascus area and the Southern Front coalition of insurgents fighting in the far less active southern parts of Syria.

On paper it seemed then that the cessation of hostilities would make little difference but the fighting has been sharply reduced in the fortnight since implementation and Russia has been helping to negotiate a series of local amnesties and ceasefires, building on a tactic the Syrian Government has been using for several years and that has seen insurgents allowed to leave many areas including Homs city.

Since the cessation began anti Government demonstrations have resumed in the rebel held areas but they are neither large nor enthusiastic. On the weekend an attempt to hold a pro-democracy rally in Idlib backfired badly when the “democratic’ protesters were attacked by Islamists advocating the implementation of Sharia law. The overwhelming desire of the majority of the people appears to be for the war to end and be able to resume their lives.

The sooner it is over the better, but the problem of al Nusra, ISIS and their sponsors is not suddenly going away, even if the Americans decide to call it a day, there are strong indications that neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia would follow the advice or direction of the US.

Looking from the Latakia mountains down into al Nusra held Idlib province. The town of Jisr ash Shigour is the white patch in the upper left, at a distance of around 7 kilometres.
Looking from the Latakia mountains down into al Nusra held Idlib province. The town of Jisr ash Shigour is the white patch in the upper left, at a distance of around 7 kilometres.
Syrian Amry rockets impact on a Latakia mountain viewed from a surveillance drone.
Syrian Amry rockets impact on a Latakia mountain viewed from a surveillance drone.

Major Current Government Operations.

The Latakia offensive is almost complete and the assault is poised to move onto Idlib province in the coming days and weeks.

Drone footage of Syrian Army MRLs against militants in Kabbani – Latakia

Syria‬ ‪‎Latakia‬ : ‎SAA‬ ‪‎NDF‬ military operations in Vicinity of ‪‎Kabani‬

A large operation is also underway against ISIS in the area around Palmyra in central Syria.

Syrian Army prepares to storm Palmyra | March 10th 2016

Rain of BM-30 Smerch, TOS-1A and BM-27 by SAA on ISIS in Palmyra

Fighting continues in the Hama and Homs countryside and in southern Aleppo.

Battles for Syria | March 12th 2016

Battles for Syria | March 13th 2016 | North Hama Plain

The Der az Zour pocket showing the SAA positions.
The Der ez Zour pocket showing the SAA positions.

Besieged Der ez Zour and Conclusion.

Thousands of Syrian troops and hundreds of thousands of civilians remain encircled by ISIS in the eastern city of Der az Zour and although ISIS are on the path to total collapse in both Syria and Iraq, without Russian air support it is hard to see the Syrian Army liberating Palmyra and defeating ISIS and al Nusra in Syria.

The attempt to end the war is admirable but this will not solve the problem of al Nusra and ISIS each of which retains significant territories within Syria.

It must be assumed that Russian air strikes will continue in Syria for many months at the very least with a scaled down presence conducting a smaller campaign.  Anything less would be a betrayal of all they have achieved up to this point.

International Millitary Review & Analysis – Withdrawal of Russian Military from Syria


First group of aircraft has left ‪‎Hmeymim‬ airbase for permanent location airfields in Russia