This incident may prove to have been a tragic accident or it could be far more serious. It is too early to speculate as to the cause of the crash but if reports that no distress signal was sent are true, and it is already established that the weather was favorable it is hard to imagine a mechanical fault or pilot failure resulting in the loss of the plane because under either scenario there is an overwhelming likelihood of a distress signal from the flight.
The dropping like a rock into the ocean for no apparent reason phenomenon has been seen in numerous air disaster in recent years from the Air France 447 disaster to the Air Asia 8501 calamity and many others.
State Department talking head John Kirby and many other current and former US officials have repeatedlywarned Russia of violent retribution for the defeat of the Western proxy forces in Syria on many occasions. If foul play has led to the demise of this aircraft those words may well come to haunt them and the world.
Updated- December 28th.
There were no survivors of the TU154 Black Sea crash. The flight voice and data recorders have been recovered and sources well connected with the Russia government claim that these and other data overwhelmingly point to pilot and/or mechanical error as the cause of the tragedy,
“According to a source close to investigation speaking to Interfax, initial readings from the black box appear to confirm the pilot error story. “The preliminary analysis of the flight recorder is complete,” said the unnamed source.
“It leads us to conclude that that the version of the catastrophe connected to mistakes made by the pilot of the aircraft, is the main version.”
Published record of the last session with the falling into the Black Sea in Sochi, the Tu-154
Three main scenarios behind Tu-154 plane crash in Black Sea
On October 16th, legendary Donbass militia commander Motorola (born Arsen Pavlov) was killed by an explosion in Donetsk. A device was hidden in the elevator of the building in which Motorola lived with his wife and child, and detonated as Motorola returned home, killing both he and his bodyguard.
He had survived at least two previous assassination attempts, the most recent being an apparent botched bomb plot in August.
Motorola’s life before the Donbass war is low on detail. He was born in 1983 and raised in Rostov, western Russia, he was a Marine in the Russian military, fought in the second Chechnya war early 2000s before coming to prominence during the Donbass war.
Motorola was a leader of the pro-Russian militia groups that have been fighting the Ukraine government forces since 2014 when a Western engineered colour revolution swept the elected Ukraine government from power and replaced them with ultra-nationalists and IMF flunkies.
Motorola was the commander of the Sparta battalion, who operate as a semi-special forces grouping within the DPR militia, he was involved in many of the most significant battles fought by the militia, playing a key role in the successful Second Battle for Donetsk Airport among many others.
Motorola engaged in numerous noteworthy acts of courage, exposing himself to close range tank fire, and generally leading from the very front of the front, giving his men confidence by the sheer force of his will and personality.
As a professionally trained soldier, Motorola was not only a fighter, he also operated training camps for less experienced fighters where they were taught infantry tactics.
Who Murdered Motorola?
The sad truth is that such is the state of Governance in the Donbass republics that there may never be any real investigation into this murder.
The attacker managed to sneak into the lift, plant the device, which could be done in ten seconds, and then monitor the traffic into the lift in order to press the button at the correct moment.
My initial assumption that the Ukraine and their allies must have murdered Motorola did not survive the reading of a typically thoughtful analysis from the Saker.
Having had a rethink, this is the picture that has emerged of the potential suspects.
The operation is widely regarded as being beyond the level of professionalism of the Ukraine security services, and while it remains possible that they were behind this it seems at the less likely end of the hypotheses on offer.
At face value it also seems highly unlikely that the operation would be directed by a Western agency as the death of Motorola does not change the overall situation to the benefit of the West to the degree worthy of the risk or resources the operation required.
The idea that Russia was involved can also be all but discounted. Motorola was an employee of Russia, if Russia thought he was dong a bad job, they would simply send him home. They had no motivation to waste time sneaking around planting bombs, he was their man, he obeyed orders, whatever they wanted to do to him, they would simply summon him.
The details of the attack mean it was either a very high-tech operation or it was done by someone very close to home. In recent years, almost all the major military and political and military leaders of the Donbass republics have been targeted for assassination, including the two putative heads of state in the respective republics, Alexander Zakharchenko of Donetsk and Igor Plotnitsky of Luhansk.
Infighting is part of the story and the Motorola killing fits into a broader pattern of events in the self-declared republics, with a partial breakdown of law and order and the absence of a real system of justice.
The best explanation for Motorola’s death, without having access to hard facts, would be some type of inside attack directed from within as part of some rivalry or betrayal.
The loss of Motorola is an immense psychological and symbolic blow to the beleaguered self-declared republics but it will not change the fundamentals of the situation in east Ukraine.
In the eastern Ukraine, Russia created a military and political force able to veto any attempt to include the Ukraine in NATO ans once that goal was achieved the Russian priority changed to mending political ties with Europe, hoping to end the EU sanctions.
The New Cold War.
In order to understand why this war is happening, we must look back at the post Cold war period.
At the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Union unilaterally dismantled itself, ended the European empire built on the back of the victory over the Nazi’s, abandoned communism and ended the reason for NATO’s existence, the Warsaw pact alliance grouping.
Rather than engage in a constructive reconciliation process, the West simply viewed Russia as a weakened enemy, to be exploited and attacked.
This was inexplicable because the official reasons for the conflict between the West and Russia, communism and the Soviet empire, were gone.
At the behest of Neo-liberal ideologues the assets of the Russian state were sold off at a tiny fraction of their value and later, foreign jihadists were inserted into Chechnya in order to start the Chechen war in the 1990s.
Key leaders of the Chechen insurgency were trained at the same training camps the CIA and the Pakistani ISI had earlier trained the Afghan mujaheddin.
As Michel Chossudovsky writes “the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence arranged for Basayev and his trusted lieutenants (Khattab included) to undergo intensive Islamic indoctrination and training in guerrilla warfare in the Khost province of Afghanistan at Amir Muawia camp, set up in the early 1980s by the CIA and ISI and run by famous Afghani warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. In July 1994, upon graduating from Amir Muawia, Basayev was transferred to Markaz-i-Dawar camp in Pakistan to undergo training in advanced guerrilla tactics. In Pakistan, Basayev met the highest ranking Pakistani military and intelligence officers: Minister of Defense General Aftab Shahban Mirani, Minister of Interior General Naserullah Babar, and the head of the ISI branch in charge of supporting Islamic causes, General Javed Ashraf,” (Source)
Basayev, along with Saudi jihadist Ibn Khattab, led insurgent attacks on the provinces bordering Chechnya in 1998, attacking both Dagestan and Ingushetia, a ridiculous provocation designed to end the relatively peaceful informal independence of Chechnya.
On the external front, a dozen former Warsaw pact nations were included in an eastward expanding NATO, breaking numerous assurances made to Russia at the time of the German reintegration.
The broken deal is a secondary issue, the elephant in the room is why does NATO even existpost Warsaw pact? And if the purpose of the expansion was not to encircle Russia then what was it?
The leadership of the West continued the Cold War unilaterally and for a very long time they met very little resistance, (the 2008 war against Georgia being a major exception) until they staged the colour revolution in Ukraine at the start of 2014.
The Ukraine had an elected government, all the politicians on all sides were corrupt. Protests against the government began after the President chose not to pursue closer economic ties with Europe. After several months the protests grew extremely violent and caused an equally violent response from the security forces.
At this point, Russia made a compromise deal for the President to stand aside and hold early elections but the West continued with the putsch and in late February during the latter stages of the Sochi Winter Olympics the coup succeeded and the President of the Ukraine fled. This was the breaking point for Russia.
Russia could not risk losing the Sevastopol naval base to a hostile NATO takeover of the Ukraine, sOnce the Olympics were finished, Russia took dramatic action, a co-ordinated military political operation saw the Ukraine military evicted from the Crimea with very little violence and soon after that the people of Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and to join the Russian Federation.
Russia was able to achieve these things at very little cost and the reason for this was despite the fact that the Russian actions were driven by the need to retain Sevastopol, the people of Crimea were genuinely horrified by the coup government, largely regarded themselves as Russians all along and were relieved to leave a dysfunctional in the best of times Ukraine.
The operation was a huge success and Crimea is well in the process of being integrated into Russia, the operation succeeded because the goals of the Russia government broadly matched the goals of the people of Crimea.
It was one of the most stunning events in recent history, the West was powerless to act and the subject is so painful that it still reduces the minions of the West to quivering rage whenever it is raised.
The core support for the deposed president Viktor Yanukovych was in the east of the Ukraine and the coup government decision to banish Russian as a language of the Ukraine, along with the ultra-nationalist elements in the government saw a rebellion begin in the east in the months following the coup.
By the middle of 2014, militia groups had formed in the eastern regions, the Ukraine armed forces tried to enter the east and evict these groups from their positions and a war broke out between them for control of east Ukraine.
At some point Russia decided to lend military and logistical support to the insurgents and by August 2014 the militia were bolstered by the presence of covertly inserted Russian soldiers, the Ukraine attempts to seize the eastern areas largely failed and following a terrible defeat for the Ukraine forces in the Battle of Ilovaisk the first Minsk agreement was signed in early September 2014.
The Donbass war in many ways resembles the West’s “dirty war” operations all over the world, from Syria to El Salvador and Guatemala, the core tactic is the same, an enemy is attacked using cut-outs in a proxy war.
Following Minsk the people of the Donbass are trapped in a netherworld with no prospect of escape. The Ukraine state regards them as foreigners, enemies, people to be shelled as punishment for their disloyalty.
The Donbass militias are also trapped, they cannot win the war, they cannot lose the war, instead they must simply fight to keep their pocket of territory and remain the Russian bargaining chip in the Ukraine.
The people were given false hope that Russia would either help them achieve independence or absorb them as it had Crimea. Neither option was ever part of the plan so the war, despite the tactical victories and the courage and skill of the fighters, was a trick played on the participants.
The Donbass militias and the people are a pawn that are there to be able to give Russia the ability to veto any attempt to include the Ukraine in NATO as well as act as an armed buffer on Russia’s western border.
That is why they can never be allowed to lose, that is why they are not supposed to win independence or to join Russia, and that is why while the Russia actions in Crimea can be seen to have improved the lives of the Crimeans the same cannot be said of the Donbass.
What Russia has done to these people, whilst being perfectly rational and probably in the Russian interest, was low and cynical in many ways.
For the Ukraine state, the Donbass war has been an immense disaster and humiliation. Once the border posts between east Ukraine and Russia fell, the war was effectively over with no possibility of a victory as Russia now had the ability to provide sufficient assistance at any time in order to protect the Donbass pocket.
The Minsk 2 agreement, reached in February 2015, is the concrete representation fo Russia’s decision to walk away from the Donbass war. The agreement is highly favorable to the Ukrainian side, including for example the condition that the Donbass militia groups go into exile upon disbandment.
This commentary from Mikhail Belyayev provides a good summary of the one sided nature of the deal that Russia forced upon the Donbass republics.
“The publicized text of the ceasefire agreement that was signed in Minsk is what this very real betrayal looks like. The betrayal of everything that the Novorossiya Militiamen fought and died for. The betrayal of Novorossiya itself, because, based on the text of this agreement, there is no place envisioned for Novorossiya, nor for the Militia and nor even for any “special status” for the People’s Republics.
All that this so-called ceasefire agreement provides for is a temporary status of local self-government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions. Even that is conditional on the complete elimination of the Militia and the release of all Ukrainian prisoners of war; moreover, the Militiamen are obliged not only to lay down arms, but also to leave the territory of Ukraine. In return, Ukraine promises amnesty to the parties to the conflict, a national dialogue, and certain measures aimed at improving the humanitarian situation in the Donbass. The LPR and the DPR are not even mentioned in the text of the agreement, and their representatives have signed it without any titles or ranks.
Independence and statehood? Novorossiya? A temporary special status in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions—here is all you have of independent Novorossiya. Here is all your freedom and sovereignty. You can write out these words a thousand times, print them on paper, and then shove them deep down your throat. In any event, death by strangulation is better than death through shame. Ukraine does not even intend to give autonomy to the People’s Republics. She did not even deign to mention these very Republics in the agreement. Temporary self-government in certain areas—that is the extent of Ukrainian generosity for the rebellious Donbass.
The Militiamen? According to this agreement they are now exiles and must leave the Donbass. Forever. Yes, the merciful Ukrainian side undertakes to pardon and not to criminally prosecute them. But only after they lay down arms and remove themselves from the territory of Ukraine. After all, according the agreement, all the unlawful military formations (meaning the Militia) must immediately be withdrawn beyond the boundaries of Ukraine.”
The commentary finishes with an unanswered question “it remains a mystery as to how the representatives of Novorossiya could have signed this masterpiece of Ukrainian arrogance and conceit.”
The answer is obvious: Russia told them to sign it and they completely depend on Russia for their existence so had no choice but to sign.
In the 20 or so months since the Minsk 2 agreement was made, a low intensity wear has continued, the Ukraine have the upper hand but the achievements are slight. Meanwhile, Russia is only providing the absolute bare minimum of military assistance to the militia groups.
It has been a very disappointing time for the people of the Donbass as it sinks in that Russia will never accept the eastern republics into Russia, nor will the Ukrainians implement the Minsk agreement.
The Ukraine may well be continuing the war at this time simply in order to maintain the flow of US military assistance. Given the immense corruption of the Ukraine government and the futility of what they are doing, this may be the best explanation for their actions.
The ongoing fighting only deepens the psychological chasm between the people of the Donbass and the Ukraine state.
If the Ukraine wants to retain the Donbass in any meaningful sense the Ukraine must take steps to implement Minsk, and begin the slow process of the physical and political reintegration.
Over the long-term, the West is undoubtedly the chief party in the creation of the Ukraine disaster. Treating Russia as an enemy for a quarter of a century at the end of the Cold war was an act of madness, albeit one that is now paying off as Russia’s responses to Western aggression enable the NATO parasites to resuscitate their original raison d’etre- the threat of Russia!
NATO and all the other US instruments deserve execration but the cynicism of Russia’s action regarding the eastern Ukraine cannot be overlooked. It would do well for the Syrian Government and their allies to understand that Russia is not anyone’s benefactor, it acts in the Russian interest and in the Russian interest alone.
Russia is equally capable of walking away from Syria when it is no longer in their interest and Syria and their allies should always have contingency plans that consider this possibility.
For the people of the Donbass the world might as well have frozen over, they are trapped between the geopolitical aims of the West and Russia, their lives are of apparent little concern to either party and the future is bleak.
For as long as the Second Cold war persists they will be trapped, sandwiched between the competing geopolitical goals of Russia and the West.
[eng subs] Motorola guides a tour through “Sparta’s” museum[eng subs]
[eng subs] “Main fight of the Republic: 300 Steel riflemen” by Gennadiy Dubovov
18+ Donetsk Airport: Guided Tour with Motorola (English Subtitles) 18+ Donetsk Airport: Guided Tour with Motorola (English Subtitles)
“You will pay in blood for Motorola” – Givi
Assassination of Motorola: the last straw? Chilling message
al Nusra Front claim the SU22 was shot down with a ZPU anti-aircraft heavy machine gun.
Orient News (better known as Al Nusra television) have conducted an interview with one of the fighters involved with the downing of the Syrian jet this week. The masked al Nusra fighter claimed that the jet was struck by a 14.5 anti-aircraft gun. The fighter is referring to a weapons system popularly known as the ZPU which consists of either two or four machine KPV heavy machine guns, often mounted on the back of vehicles. It is classed as anti-aircraft artillery. These weapons are very common in Syria.
Orient News interviews the man who shot Assad jet down in Aleppo southern countryside
There is no way to confirm these claims but they fit with the known facts and make sense. Hilariously Orient News tried to claim that the warplane was bombing civilians, yet the al Nusra fighters boast completely refutes this pathetic propaganda claim because if the claims are correct the proscribed terror group were operating heavy weapons in the area, the shootdown and the Nusra claim make it clear there were legitimate military targets in al Eis this week.
April 6th, 2016.
Syrian Jet Downed in Aleppo-Pilot Captured.
A Syrian Air force Sukhoi Su22 jet has been shot down in southern Aleppo in the vicinity of the town of al Eis and the pilot has been captured by the jihadists of the al Nusra Front. Tel al Eis has been the site of heavy fighting in recent days after insurgents launched a major offensive in southern Aleppo that saw them seize control of the small southern Aleppo village that government forces seized from the insurgents last November as part of their Aleppo offensive.
The downing of the Su22 is the second Syrian Air Force jet lost in the past several weeks, in mid-March a MIG 21 was downed in Hama province, one pilot ejected but another died after unsuccessfully attempting to land the damaged jet. The cause of the SU22 downing is unclear but the MIG21 appeared to have been attacked with a portable SAM missile or MANPAD.
There is speculation that these jets may have been downed by new surface to air missiles provided to the insurgents by their sponsors however an examination of the history of the Syrian war shows that these latest incidents do not represent a significant departure from what has taken pace throughout the war.
According to the highly respected US journalist Gareth Porter the current partial ceasefire in Syria was due to a secret deal between the US and Russia. Under the purported deal Russia would restrict their bombing attacks to al Nusra and ISIS and in return the US woulkd convince their allies in Saudi Arabia and Turkey to completely stem the flow of weapons to the rebels.
Events on the ground over recent weeks have supported the claims made by Gareth Porter;there has been a dramatic decrease for example in the use of anti tank guided missiles by the insurgents recently, with the dreaded TOW missiles –one of the major offensive weapons in the insurgents- all but disappearing from the battlefield in recent months.
Until the cause of the SU22 shoot down is ascertained specualtion is premature but if an entity or a state have been providing the likes of Jabhat al Nusra with surface to air missiles that could scuttle that deal and see a renewed escalation of the Russian role in the war.
In all likelihood iin this case the insurgents got lucky on the back of a careless pilot but these are worrying signs that the nightmarish Syrian war may be nowhere near conclusion.
Syria War 2016 – Syrian Su-22 Fighter Jet Shot Down By Al-Nusra Front South Of Aleppo
SYRIA Militants shot down the Su-22 Chronicle of events
International Military Review – Syria, Apr. 6, 2016
Russia Announces Withdrawal of its Military from Syria.
On the eve of UN brokered peace talks, the Russian Government has made the shock announcement that they will withdraw the “main part of their military grouping in the Syrian Arab Republic” beginning immediately.
The statement from the Kremlin does not say how many of the Russian Aircraft and troops will be withdrawn from Syria nor how long it would take but it has already started.
FIRST VIDEO: Russian warplanes leaving airbase in Syria
This is a very strange turn of events when it is considered that Russia was sending more warplanes to Syria less than a fortnight ago. South Front reported in early March that Russia had just sent several extra aircraft to the Syrian base and provided an updated inventory of the Russian Airforce in Syria.
What Forces does Russia have in Syria?
The Russian Air force has stationed almost 100 aircraft in Syria, the estimates for the number of Russian troops in Syria range between 5 and 20,000. Whatever the number, Russian forces have not played a significant role in ground battles.
Officially, the Russian military have suffered three deaths during the Syrian operation, two on November 24th last year when Turkey shot down the Russian SU24 aircraft and another soldier died in the rescue effort and a soldier who died earlier this year as the result of a reported ISIS mortar attack.
There were also credible reports that a car bomb attack in Latakia claimed by Ahrar al Sham had killed at least ten Russian soldiers in late February.
The story disappeared but there were people on both sides telling neutral sources it happened.
The Russian decision comes as a shock as they are a vital element of the loyalist coalition that is midway through several major operations.
The motives for this decision will become clear over time but it seems that Russia has decided to put its will towards ending the war in Syria.
It is possible that Russia is attempting to send a message to their Syrian Government allies that they must be flexible in their negotiations with the opposition.
In recent days the Syrian Foreign Minister stated that the status of the Syrian President Bashar al Assad was not up for negotiation. It is possible that Russia would like to see Assad and coterie head into exile as a way to end the war.
Russia has tended to be at least one step ahead of Western observers in recent years so only when we see what happens next will Russia’s intent become recognisable.
There are three obvious possibilities.
This is a ruse designed to bolster the Geneva talks and Russia’s international image.
The US and Russia have made a secret deal regarding Syria’s future that will end the war.
Russia wants Bashar al Assad to leave Syria and is trying to make Assad understand that he must yield to the demands of the opposition and leave power.
My understanding is that Russia is perfectly happy to see Assad leave as they understand that the demand for his departure is merely an excuse for the destruction of Syria via a continuation of the war, their priority has clearly been the survival of the Syrian state and the Syrian army, under whatever leadership. If the war could be ended by his departure, in an orderly way it is highly likely that Russia would request that Assad leave Syria.
Brief Summary of the Military Situation in Syria.
International Military Review – Syria–Iraq, Mar. 14, 2016
International Military Review – Syria, Mar. 16, 2016
A Cessation of Hostilities?
Around one hundred small insurgent groupings chose to participate in the partial ceasefire. The cessation did not apply and was never intended to apply towards either ISIS nor the local al Qaeda franchise the al Nusra front. Another large grouping Ahrar al Sham chose not to participate in the cessation due to the fact that the al Nusra front, their close ally, were excluded.
Therefore the only insurgent groups of any significance to participate was the Jaish al Islam, largely based in the outer Damascus area and the Southern Front coalition of insurgents fighting in the far less active southern parts of Syria.
On paper it seemed then that the cessation of hostilities would make little difference but the fighting has been sharply reduced in the fortnight since implementation and Russia has been helping to negotiate a series of local amnesties and ceasefires, building on a tactic the Syrian Government has been using for several years and that has seen insurgents allowed to leave many areas including Homs city.
Since the cessation began anti Government demonstrations have resumed in the rebel held areas but they are neither large nor enthusiastic. On the weekend an attempt to hold a pro-democracy rally in Idlib backfired badly when the “democratic’ protesters were attacked by Islamists advocating the implementation of Sharia law. The overwhelming desire of the majority of the people appears to be for the war to end and be able to resume their lives.
The sooner it is over the better, but the problem of al Nusra, ISIS and their sponsors is not suddenly going away, even if the Americans decide to call it a day, there are strong indications that neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia would follow the advice or direction of the US.
Major Current Government Operations.
The Latakia offensive is almost complete and the assault is poised to move onto Idlib province in the coming days and weeks.
Drone footage of Syrian Army MRLs against militants in Kabbani – Latakia
Syria Latakia : SAA NDF military operations in Vicinity of Kabani
A large operation is also underway against ISIS in the area around Palmyra in central Syria.
Syrian Army prepares to storm Palmyra | March 10th 2016
Rain of BM-30 Smerch, TOS-1A and BM-27 by SAA on ISIS in Palmyra
Fighting continues in the Hama and Homs countryside and in southern Aleppo.
Battles for Syria | March 12th 2016
Battles for Syria | March 13th 2016 | North Hama Plain
Besieged Der ez Zour and Conclusion.
Thousands of Syrian troops and hundreds of thousands of civilians remain encircled by ISIS in the eastern city of Der az Zour and although ISIS are on the path to total collapse in both Syria and Iraq, without Russian air support it is hard to see the Syrian Army liberating Palmyra and defeating ISIS and al Nusra in Syria.
The attempt to end the war is admirable but this will not solve the problem of al Nusra and ISIS each of which retains significant territories within Syria.
It must be assumed that Russian air strikes will continue in Syria for many months at the very least with a scaled down presence conducting a smaller campaign. Anything less would be a betrayal of all they have achieved up to this point.
International Millitary Review & Analysis – Withdrawal of Russian Military from Syria
First group of aircraft has left Hmeymim airbase for permanent location airfields in Russia
“After this, we hope our allies will see the YPG as the extension of the terrorist organization PKK. … Those who see an organization that is the enemy of Turkey as friendly will lose Turkey’s friendship.”
Turkish Prime Minster Ahmet Davotoglu. February 18th, 2016. (Source)
the Ankara False Flag Flopped.
In one of the most amazing investigations in human history the Turkish Government managed to wholesale solve the Ankara bombing attack within 24 hours of the blast.
The presumably mangled remnants of the bomber were positively identified, the cell supporting was found and arrested and the evidence was complied in a dossier to be presented to the United Nations as part of an attempt to have the YPG designated as a terrorist organisation. The overall goal was undoubtedly to cause the US to end their alliance with the YPG and rejoin Al Nusra, Isis, Turkey and Saudi Arabia in a war against Russia and Iran over Syria.
Statements from the US State Department make it crystal clear that the Ankara attack failed in it’s objective to cause the US to cut ties with the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia and fall in line with Turkey’s interests in Syria.
State Department Spokesman John Kirby indicated in the briefing of February 18th that the US regards the identity of the Ankara perpetrators as “an open question” showing that the US does not accept the”YPG did it” narrative Turkey has manufactured.
“With respect to the claims of responsibility, we’re in no position to confirm or deny the assertions made by the Turkish Government with respect to responsibility. As far as we know, that’s – as far as we’re concerned, that’s still an open question. And we understand that there’s an investigation ongoing, so I’m not in a position one way or another to ascribe responsibility.”
Further to that, Kirby indicated that the status of the YPG has not changed in the eyes of the US, that “they remain an important ally against the Islamic State group.” The understudy followed this on the 19th with:
“They have been very effective partners on the ground in northern Syria, as part of a broader group of forces fighting in northern Syria, in pushing back ISIL. And we’ve not seen, in our assessment, any inclination for them to do anything else other than take the fight to Daesh.”
This group were last in the news in December 2015 when they were blamed for a mortar attack on an Istanbul airport that left one civilian worker dead and another injured. That attack was itself somewhat odd as there was a dispute as to whether the casualties were caused by a bomb or mortar attack.
The previous incidents attributed to the TAK date back to 2011 and 2012, two bomb attacks on security forces targets that left two victims dead and several wounded between them.
So it seems highly unlikely that the TAK went from being able to kill one or two soldiers at best to being able to penetrate the major Government zone in Ankara near the parliament and launch such a devastating attack.
Never having heard of them before today I have not had a chance to investigate the TAK but I have previously come across the fact that the PKK were themselves the beneficiary of historical assistance from Turkish intelligence.
The TAK claim directly contradicts the claims made about the attack by the Turkish leadership in several core areas.
Turkey claimed the bomber was a Syrian Kurd named Salih Necar, the TAK claim the bomber was a Turkish native named Abdülbaki Sönmez a 26 year old from the eastern town named Van. (Source)
The claim also contradicts the Turkish claims that the Syrian YPG were involved and removes all the elements of the story that relate to Syria.
The claim is likely a face saving move concocted by an unknown intelligence agency. It is a compromise.
Either the TAK or the Government of Turkey are lying about the authors of the Ankara attack, that is clear.
Turkey should have understood that ISIS are the only currently acceptable all purpose patsy who can safely be blamed for almost any act of violence anywhere. False flags that do not support the core War on Terror Mk.2 narrative are given short shrift.
The Western media were completely bewildered,unsure what brand of propaganda message they were expected to deliver. Several in Australai chose to edit the US/YPG relationship from the story entirely and present to their readers the narrative of the YPG as a Russian and Syrian proxy. The local Murdoch rags printed a story(no byline,no agency even) that edited the core story, the dispute between the US and Turkey over the status of the YPG entirely, and framed the story this way: “(Turkish PM) Davotoglu…warned Russia, which Turkey accuses of backing the YPG that Moscow would be held responsible for future attacks.” etc.
They have completely mischaracterised the YPG, edited from the story the far longer and more extensive US/YPG relationship, which is the core issue, accepted at face value the laughable claim of the Turkish Government and then insinuated that the YPG are a Russian proxy, which is utter crap and anyone who pays any attention at all knows it is simply crap.
Syrian Kurds reject involvement in Ankara blast
The War in Syria is almost over and the carve up is underway.
The infantile nature of these people would be amusing were it not so dangerous, but the US has taken a position and it is that they will let Russia, Syria and Iran win in Syria in return for a pro-US Kurdish autonomous zone in North eastern Syria.
The Saudis and Turks can either try and stage another Neoconservative coup in the United States or they can come to terms with the reality of the situation. Hopefully the latter, but the point is a position has been taken. It is over, it is not happening so they should just accept defeat and try and salvage what they can of their own futures.
As far as Turkey’s concerns about a Kurdish statelet on their southern border, these are legitimate concerns, however Turkey long ago voided that card when it cynically chose to support the Syrian jihadists in their criminal attempt to overthrow the Syrian state.
If Turkey valued stability they should not have been trying to destroy Syria with their army of mercenaries and brainwashed fools. Their actions created the vacuum into which the militants seized territory and opened the door to the Kurds of the North to fill the void assisted by the US.
By choosing to support the violent overthrow of Syria, Turkey lost the right to whine about the “wrong people” filling the vacuum they helped create.
Stories in the pro “Caliph” Erdogan media suggest that the Government is trying to promote the “Russia and Syria did it ” conspiracy theory and it seems some people in Turkey are actually buying that nonsense.
“Some intelligence sources in Ankara believe the bombing could be an act by Syrian military intelligence, perhaps backed by Russia. After all, the explosion took place very close to the air force command, which could be taken as a message of retribution for Turkey’s Nov. 24 downing of a Russian fighter jet”(Source)
Logic and reality show us that Russia is not seeking a war with Turkey, it is doing the opposite.
If Russia wanted to attack Turkey they would have bombed the Turkish Artillery pieces sitting out in the open in the border region shelling Syria.
Raining Shells: Turkish army fires on Kurdish forces in Syria
There have been apparent PKK car bombs in recent times, a massive attack in Diyarbakir tore the front off the local police station and left civilians and police dead in January.
Turkey: At least 5 dead, 36 injured in blast at Cinar police department in Diyarbakir
This is a regrettable incident but an attack on a security target (civilians died) in a war zone during a war is a completely different kettle of fish to a massive car bomb deep inside the security zone of the capital, within hundreds of feet of the parliament and military headquarters.
The Diyarbakir bombing was not a major news story in the West, on the contrary it was ignored and the Government of Turkey did not try and utilise the attack for political gain. The atmospheric difference between genuine guerrilla attacks and synthetic terror are stark and represent part of a broad repeating pattern.
We know from a fifty year history of synthetic terror that when a “game changing” event arises at the perfect time and is cynically exploited by people who solve the crime with remarkable speed that it is almost certain that these same people or their cut-outs were responsible for the event that is being exploited to achieve their stated goals.
Russia is not seeking to enter or attack Turkey, merely to defeat the enemies of Syria in Syria. Russia has decided to try and avoid conflict with Turkey. Multiple provocations have been ignored, Turkey’s attempt to end the US/YPG alliance and their repeated requests for the US to choose between they and the Syrian Kurds show how arrogant and deluded the Ankara Government have become.
This was merely another failed provocation and like the steady stream of media lies, can be expected to continue until the war is over.
Russia Defense Report – Feb. 20, 2016: Russian Military Grouping in Syria
Loyalist Victories Prove Russian Presence Has Transformed the Syrian War.
Aleppo victories mean that Insurgents Northern supply line has been severed.
Aleppo City pocket almost encircled.
After four months of Russian Airstrikes the situation in Syria has been transformed and in the past several weeks the Loyalist forces have won important victories in the North and South of Syria with the capture of the key crossroads town Sheikh Miskeen in the South as well as the key towns Salma and Rabia in the northern Latakia province.
Those important victories have this week been eclipsed by the major achievements in Aleppo where the sieges of the towns Zahra and Nubil were lifted after forty months and the loyalist forces have now cut off the insurgents in Northern Aleppo from their supply lines via the Aleppo countryside and the Turkish border. Both sides are taking heavy casualties but the Syrian Army and allies are achieving their objectives, the insurgents are dying and at the same time losing territories they fought hard for years to capture and hold.
Residents Nubl and Az-Zahra meet liberators
International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 8, 2016
International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 4, 2016
International Military Review – Syria, Feb. 5,
SAA/Hezbollah Operations in North Aleppo: Ratyan
Syrian Army And Hezbollah In Heavy Clashes During Assault On Northern Aleppo
The R and U Videos channel is an excellent compiler of footage of the war, almost the raw footage equivalent of the always excellent South Front analysis.
Battles for Syria | February 5th 2016 | Aleppo province
Battles for Syria | February 6th 2016 | North Aleppo Front | Mayer
Battles for Syria | February 7th 2016
Battles for Syria | February 7th 2016 | Aleppo province
Syria: Syrian Army makes push to fully encircle Aleppo
The Suffering is Immense.
There should be no mistake about the fact there is an immense amount of suffering currently being visited upon the beleaguered people of Syria, nor that the Russian/Syrian air campaign is playing a significant role in this suffering and death.
While many of the areas of fighting in Syria are devoid of civilians, having been emptied during previous battles, many people live in rebel held areas of Idlib, Aleppo and several other provinces and civilians in these areas have died in large numbers at the hands of Russian and Syrian airstrikes targeting militant positions.
The insurgent and Western media propaganda line that Russian Airstrikes are targeting civilians is not supported by facts or logic, but the idea that the Russian Air-force are launching thousands of airstrikes without killing civilians is equally ludicrous and the Russian media do themselves no credit the way they have completely ignored the civilian deaths the air campaign has caused.
Despite this the Syrian-Russian-Iranian operation is worthy of support because a victory for the insurgents in Syria would not see an end to the fighting but would lead to fracture and descent into chaos as competing insurgent warlords vied for power.
Previous victories in Afghanistan and more recently in Libya have seen this descent into chaos and failed statehood status. If the likes of Jaish al Islam, Ahrar al Sham, al Nusra and ISIL/Daesh were vying for power the results would be almost identical to the process that has seen the once thriving Libyan state become a failed and broken state and a base for the extremists who threaten to attack the West and bring instability to wherever they operate.
The only party with any chance of stabilising the situation is the Syrian state, deeply flawed as it is. All other paths lead to long term mayhem and broadening instability.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia threaten invasion of Syria.
Saudi Arabia and the mini me Gulf States the UAE and Qatar have responded to this situation by suggesting that they will send troops into Syria to “battle Daesh.”A pretext that should no longer fools anyone.
The Gulf coalition are clearly already suffering a severe shortage of quality ground forces, hence their need to deploy Blackwater/Academi/Xe mercenaries in large numbers on the ground in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is also suffering regular cross border raids from their Yemeni enemies.
As far as Turkey goes they are not going to be able to do anything significant in Syria without the assent of the US and there is little chance of that happening given that the key Turkish target in Syria is the key US ally, the YPG Kurds. It is a non-starter even by Erdogan’s loose standards.
The US has no interest in choosing between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, but a leadership change in Turkey may allow the US to solve the dilemma in another manner.
Turkey still supports the regime change operation in Syria but they are not about to attack the Syrian Army inside Syria and find themselves under bombardment from the Russian Air force.
One option they may seek to take would be to corral the tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the Aleppo fighting within Syria and send a “protection force” to institute the long mooted (and even announced in July 2015) safe zone in Northern Syria although whatever happens the presence in Syria of the Russian S400 anti aircraft and missile systems mean the proposed no fly zone is an impossibility short of open war with Russia and the highly factionalised US administration does not seem to support this project therefore it will not happen.
The US refused to support the safe zone prior to the Russian military involvement in Syria, back in July, when the risks and costs were far lower so it seems inconceivable that it would be supported at this time . At a moment of high desperation for the plotters the refugees will presumably be again used to try and rescue the situation.
Syria: Makeshift camp set up for refugees stranded at Turkish border
Messages of Despair and Pleas for help from Insurgents.
“This is my last video from the revolution in the north. Iran and Russia attacked us and the world made war on us destroying the green and the dry.( Apparent Google translate error) The Americans betrayed us and got us into this shameful situation. We thank our allies Turkey and Saudi and Qatar. We needed anti-aircraft weapons but we didn’t get them. So we have to pull out.”
Syria, Northern Aleppo, Militant in Rityan message to People before Withdrawing This Morning.
This video is quite horrific. It consists of a plea for unity among insurgent factions. The wounded fighter is named Abu Homs. It is hard to watch but serves as a reminder that real people are dying unnecessarily in this war. The Syrian opposition contains many Syrian who were duped, manipulated and sold a suite of false promises and lies from their sponsors.
This is what he looked like before he was wounded.
Wounded Insurgent’s Hospital Message
Ending the Carnage.
Even if the Syrian Arab Army and their allies are able to win every battle and destroy the insurgent formations, a political solution will still be required and the insurgents will have to be given some type of autonomy and increased participation in Syrian politics otherwise the insurhency will continue indefinitely long after the war ends, as has happened in Iraq.
The initial round of Syria peace talks were an empty farce with the opposition making the ridiculous demand that the Syrian Government and their allies stop fighting prior to the dialogue. It can only be hoped that the reality of their situation dawns upon them soon and a more realistic and conciliatory outlook will replace the delusional grandstanding that still dominate the opposition public narrative.
One of the things that would be unambiguously positive would be an end to war. This would be something worth hoping for and working towards.
Unfortunately the current power structure on the planet means that war and chaos will accelerate right up until the day the New World Order truly seizes power and until that day all who oppose must be destroyed.
In Washington DC, the powerful are working their way towards open war with Russia, if you listen to the words of John McCain or Hillary Clinton, they both advocate the imposition of a No Fly Zone in Syria.
This is a signal that the Washington DC power elite believe in confronting Russia with force in Syria. This is what happens to all obstacles.
One way or another obstacles must be removed, and today that applies to Vladimir Putin along with Bashar al Assad and while these people remain in and close to power in the West, there seems little hope of peace and I do not mean McCain and Clinton but rather the interests they represent.
On the other hand, according to the Coleman Experience the crimes of the wicked Brtish elite will be fully exposed this year. It can only be hoped that this is correct and that the same process takes place right across the West. But do not hold your breath,.
The Number 2016.
For what it is worth, the number 2016 is a very special number as it is related to so many other numbers and number families as compared with most numbers. It is in many ways the best number to grace a year since 1728, the last year divisible by 288.
The number 2016 is divisible by all numbers beneath ten except for 5, so it represents a kind of rich fruit that belongs to several different number families. There are precisely 2016 hours in twelve weeks. (24 times 7 is 168 and 168 times 12 is 2016.)
It has 36 factors.
1 times 2016.
2 times 1008.
3 times 672.
4 times 504.
6 times 336.
7 times 288.
8 times 252.
9 times 224.
12 times 168.
14 times 144.
16 times 126.
18 times 112.
21 times 96.
24 times 84.
28 times 72.
32 times 63.
36 times 56.
42 times 48.
There is a lot of very interesting information about the way our reality is shaped by certain numbers and formulae here.
There is something almost touching in the way that people continue their rituals and traditions despite everything.
Life in the West seems to exist on two completely separate levels. The personal life continues with all the characteristic ups and downs. Yet there is an underlying knowledge that complete happiness, or better described as overall happiness is completely impossible in this situation. We all walk beneath a long dark cloud whether we see it or not.
We in the West live in a world of lies. Insulting lies, childish lies, and until this changes all who live in the West are tainted by this fact. The shadow of evil overlooks us all. I have no idea what will happen this year, I am sure many wonderful and terrible things will happen as they do each and every year.
I may be short sighted in my outlook, but the way it looks to me it is all rather simple.
Either the cabal(s) that rule over us with their manipulation and lies will be exposed and they will all from power or their evil deeds will continue.
This is the only pertinent issue and supersedes all else. The fall of the cabal(s) is inevitable. The brazen crimes they have committed have been detected and exposed and will destroy them in time. That is guaranteed. The only question is how long it takes and how much they destroy with them as they fall.
Happy New Year.