the Donbass War has Restarted.

Armoured Vehicle of the DPR opens fire during offensive operation in recent days.

June 12th, 2015.

Has the Donbass War Restarted?

After several months of an increasingly fractured ceasefire major fighting has now resumed in the area of Marinka and Shirokino and given the fact that only half-hearted attempts have been made to resolve the crisis the full-scale resumption of the conflict is now apparently inevitable.

Grad rockets have returned, Armour has returned, small-scale offensive operations are underway on both sides and the scale of civilian casualties and property destruction has risen dramatically recently.

The Minsk agreement tried to put in place a framework for ending the conflict and represented a genuine opportunity to resolve the crisis peacefully but the will to enforce the Minsk agreement was never present within the Ukraine Government nor their main sponsor the United States. The comparatively rational Germans and French appear to have been completely marginalised.

Minsk agreement on Ukraine crisis: text in full – Telegraph

“Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00.00 midnight (Kiev time) on Feb. 15, 2015.”

“Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70km for MLRS and 140 kilometres for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch and tactical missile systems Tochka U. for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact; for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014 ”

“The pullout of the above mentioned heavy weapons has to start no later than the second day after the ceasefire and finish within 14 days. ”
“This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group. ”

“Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc”.

“On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.”

People can make claim and counterclaim about who shot first in any situation but the political process that was signed onto by the Ukraine Government has been ignored completely. All the political steps were completely ignored.

“Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of Sept. 19, 2014. ”

“Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular departments of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine. ”

“Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of “all for all”. This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons). ”

“Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.”

“Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field) ”

“With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.”

“Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. ”

“Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.”
“Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new Constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the footnotes, by the end of 2015. The Ukraine Government appears not to have ever tried to live up to the spirit of the Minsk agreement, did not once seek to engage in dialogue with the self-proclaimed Eastern Ukraine Republics despite pledging to do so when entering into the agreement.and the flow of refugees will now resume.”

Why is the US Supporting the abrogation of the Minsk agreement?

Minsk is an ambitious plan to completely end the conflict and reintegrate the parts of Donetsk and Lugansk outside the control of the Ukraine government back into the Ukraine after a process of political reform and fresh elections in these districts. The document clearly envisages the complete disbandment of the DPR and LPR armed formations also, following elections.

Both sides agreed to the Minsk accords, it is not a one sided document and it is a plan for the reunification of the Ukraine and the restoration of the territorial integrity of the Ukraine (minus Crimea )

Why did the Ukraine Government sign up to this (twice) if they had no intent on engaging in the requisite political actions required of them under the agreement?

The Ukraine government have dishonoured themselves with their conduct (no, they do not care) and they have also dishonoured and made fools of all of the sponsors of this agreement.

Brzezinski Explains Obama.

Any wondering why the US Obama government has done a positive thing by seeking rapprochement with Iran and at the same time Obama is saying the most ridiculous things he has said on any subject about Russia

Obama lambasts Putin: you’re wrecking Russia to recreate Soviet empire | World news | The Guardian

and considers the policies incompatible needs to understand that the “wizard” standing behind the Obama marionette is Zbigniew Brzezinski and suddenly it all makes sense. Nuland and Pyatt are not rogue Neocons, they are team players, also working for Brzezinski who is obsessed with Russia and long has advised the use of Iran as an ally against Russia, that is the reason for the wildly differing policies between rationality and diplomacy with Iran but support for the most bellicose and destructive forces in Eastern Europe. This group also includes George Soros, this is the same faction.

This also explains the indifference towards Israel, which is seen (fairly) as being completely untrustworthy, but more importantly the Middle East is of secondary interest as a battle ground, it is more the place to gather energy allies and other allies to use against Russia.

Grand_Chessboard.pdf

The Brzezinski Obama thing is hardly news, Webster Tarpley identified this before Obama was even elected. The analysis has proven valid and explains so much today.

Confirmed – Obama Is Zbigniew Brzezinski Puppet

Barack Obama Endorsed by Zbigniew Brzezinski

Other People Always pay the Price in the Great Game.

Dozens, hundreds or thousands of non combatants will lose their homes and their lives and it is already happening. Ukraine: ‘Over 90 people injured in Donetsk shelling’- DPR’s Basurin

There is literally zero chance that the Ukraine Government forces will be able to reclaim the territory of the self proclaimed Republics of the Donbass as whatever force needs to be applied to prevent that from happening will be supplied from Russia.

The Government of Russia has clearly decided that the Ukraine joining NATO represents an unacceptable security threat. The continued existence of the Eastern Republics, Donetsk and Lugansk within the Ukraine guarantees that this goal will be achieved. Whether through politics or the force of arms the LPR and DPR exist for Russia as the simple low cost tools that enable Russia to prevent the Ukraine joining NATO for the foreseeable future.

The Novorussians for their part are extremely unlikely to be able to take Mariupol or make any significant territorial gains. Any attempt to attack Mariupol will likely see them lose the moral high ground as they will suddenly be the outside force attacking a large civilian population center. Playing the role the Ukraine military has played over the past year. That of the destroyer.

Donetsk is burning .(again) — Donetsk burning again.

It is impossible to say how far this will go or how many more will die but nothing good will come from this.

The bravado and delusion of the Ukraine forces seems to return undiminished within weeks or months of the last devastating defeat. They seem to go through the motions of a ceasefire, as they rebuild their positions and then suffer a near identical fate once again.

Ukraine Military Shells Strike the Area of the Donetsk Airport. A familiar half forgotten sight.

The Novorussians appear to have made a genuine attempt to respect the ceasefire but their commitment understandably dissolved in the face of constant provocations from the Ukraine side that never paid the ceasefire any heed.Certainly within weeks the attacks resumed.

The Novorussian forces have also been conducting small scale offensive operations for the past several months. It can only be hoped that the War is not escalated significantly.There is unlimited potential for carnage here potentially. \\

US, Canadian and British “trainers” are on the ground. Only small steps away from participation in the war.

[eng subs] Maryinka: 03/06/15 DPR RG tanks working

There are clearly high tensions between the US and Russia which were displayed publicly in the Black Sea earlier this week when a Russian fighter jet flew low aggressive passes near several US Naval vessels including the destroyer USS Ross.

Close Encounter: Russian fighter jets buzz US navy destroyers

Sanity Can Still Prevail.

The death toll from the war in the Donbass region at the start of June is quoted at 6400, approximately ywo hundred people have died in the almost four months of “ceasefire”. However many people are added to this tragic toll before the war ends, their deaths will have been unnecessary and the result primarily of the bellicosity and delusion of the major Western powers who for reasons that remain unfathomable, believe they have the right to rule the world. Astonishing when you consider the catastrophic track record of destroying nations over the past decade.

The deluded Western elite apparently still believe that they can pose as the forces of salvation and righteousness, the sole guardians of wisdom and the owners of the only way with both a right and an obligation to achieve total world domination regardless of the delusional nature of the goal or the human cost.

These people need to be completely removed from power forever or the madness and carnage will know no end.

A far more in depth and detailed analysis of events in the Donbass region is available here.

The Vineyard of the Saker | A bird’s eye view of the vineyard

Short update about the (very dangerous) Ukrainian situation | The Vineyard of the Saker

What really happened in Mar’inka: Truce not over yet, but getting eroded just like before | The Vineyard of the Saker

4.06.2015 Military Report of Novorossia | The Vineyard of the Saker