Discontent in Donbass

Marinka firefight June 2015 from CCTV.
CCTV footage of Marinka firefight- June 2015 .

July 12th, 2015..

The Situation.

The situation appears to be that the people of the Donbass region are trapped within the reality that Russia has achieved it’s goals and is seeking to move on from the Ukraine crisis whilst the Ukraine Government and their Western backers remain enraged by the many humiliations the Russian President has inflicted upon them over the past several years and are not willing to let the war come to an end.

The lives and interests of the people of the Donbass are clearly of secondary interest to all external parties to the conflict.

Dejan Beric interview on situation in DPR

The best recent explanation for what is currently happening is contained in this short video made by a Novorussian Serbian volunteer named Dejan Beric

The Minsk II agreement is being broken, the ceasefire never really happened, and at least two hundred deaths have occurred since the Minsk II agreement came into place, but intense fighting is largely confined to two small areas, the villages of Marinka and Shirokino that are partially held by both sides and the combatants are very close, within only hundreds of metres of each other.
Dejan Beric explains that shelling is taking place right across the contact line but the intense fighting is largely confined to these areas.

Ukraine: “Heavy weapons spotted in gov-controlled areas”- OSCE chief

Even the OCSE sleepwalkers recently noticed that the Ukraine military have violated the Minsk accords by returning their heavy weaponry to the front lines and using it with frequent civilian deaths . Deputy Chief of the OCSE team Alexander Hug had a curious choice of words to describe the situation.
“This build up of heavy weapons along the contact lines also leads to more destruction deaths and injuries to the civilian population.”
It is strange choice of words because it refers to the “build up” of Weapons as being the cause of the damage rather than their use.

[eng subs] “Vostok” brigade soldier Niemets [German] appeal to DPR command

When the large scale fighting ended in February the forces of Novorussia were achieving significant gains and causing severe losses to the Ukraine military. In the post Minsk 2 fighting the Ukraine military appear to have the initiative, previously secure positions of the DPR such as Donetsk Airport have come under renewed attack in recent weeks.
This sad video made by a German member of the Vostok battalion called “Niemets” alludes to a lack of training as the cause for the “results that have been seen.” as the soldier pleads for better training from the leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The Dawning of a Bitter Reality.

It seems to be slowly sinking in that the gains the Novorussian rebels made were highly dependent on the support of the Russian Federation and the RF has achieved all it needs in Eastern Ukraine, the RF now has the ability to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO by either military or political means.

This appears to have been the goal of the Russian federation all along as indicated by their actions and so all the talk about the “new Hitler’ Putin “threatening Europe” with aggression was simply the typically “broad” and infantile Western propaganda nonsense heard on almost every issue from the controlled media.

[eng subs] Putin’s childhood friend, now living in Gorlovka: “RF has betrayed us, UA leave us alone”

The Opinion of Putin’s Childhood Friend.
In recent weeks a video appeared on the Kazzura Youtube channel titled “Putin’s childhood friend now living in Gorlovka RF has betrayed us, UA leave us alone” The video features an interview with a former Putin friend and schoolmate named Vladimir Alexandrovich Venzin.
The majority of the interview is an unremarkable retelling of Venzin’s connection with Putin, with the information that Putin wanted to be a spy as very young boy the only memorable part.

In the last quarter of the interview the subject matter changes to current events.

“Well, I have always been proud of my acquaintance with Volodya (Vladimir Putin) of our friendship. Just a year ago it was like that.”

“Now my opinion about him has changed dramatically of course. And it’s not just my opinion that has changed but that of all Donetsk residents. If just a year ago people were praising him like some god, then now people are cursing him. Because he has provoked such a situation here, provoked a war. A very real, full scale war and then “fled into the bushes.”
“If you compare what he said in spring 2014 to what he says now.. It’s like two completely different people.. It just hurt that we were used as cover for the operation of the“annexation of Crimea.”
“They just used people “in blind” as it is called. “
“But this, I think it’s dishonourable from Russia.and whereas a year ago we would all switch our television’s on every day waiting to hear that that Russia has started sending it’s troops.
Today people simply spit whenever they hear the name of Russia. Because Russia has betrayed Donbass.
Whereas a year ago people said that “Russia does not abandon it’s people.” then now they’re silent “as loud as possible.” about it.” (They speak loudly of other subjects to avoid mentioning this unpleasant truth)
This stunning denunciation is followed by an analysis of the motives behind the change.

“There might be many reasons here, his (Putin’s) rhetoric has changed dramatically….maybe some Russian oligarchs are pressing him or perhaps he submitted to the blackmail from the United States?
That is unlikely however as he is quite a strong willed person.. I do not know the reasons nor do I want to guess about them.”

The Interview Concludes with Vladimir Alexandrovich Venzin making a plea for Russian military assistance and a denunciation of the Ukraine Government.

“The situation is critical. Diplomatic measures do not help here. It should be done like Abkhazia here.” (Abkhazia is the largely unrecognised breakaway pro-Russian republic that is formally part of Georgia that Georgia attacked in 2008 following extensive provocation, enabling a crushing Russian military response where the RF Air force destroyed the military forces of Georgia over several weeks of a completely one sided battle. In the Ukraine this would translate as the Russian Air Force destroying all the Ukraine military units East of Kiev. The leader of Georgia at the time of the 2008 Abkhazia war was Mikheil Saakashvili now bizarrely appointed the Governor of Odessa oblast, presumably on the recommendation of the USA.)
“I’d like to appeal to all Ukrainians: Leave us alone. Let us live as we want. This is not your land, it is our land and you got it only due to a mistake thanks to “Grandpa Lenin”.“

[eng subs] Vladimir Solovyov explains RF policy and situation with Donbass/refugees

The Response from the Russian federation to the Perception of Betrayal.
Vladimir Solovyov is a prominent Russian television host and journalist with a perceived closeness to the Russian Government. Solovykov recently hosted a town hall meeting for refugees from the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine. This video is also from the Kazzura channel.
The important part of the video begins with a geeky looking young man asking Solokyov a question.suggesting that the reunion of the Donetsk residents in Russia is simply:

“Basically how (to make) it so tha Donbass residents do not feel themselves betrayed?”

Vladimir Solovyov  “You see, this is such an interesting phrase. First of all no-one betrayed them as no-one has promised them anything yet. These are crucial moments which people are imagining things to themselves. Putin said that we will not allow the conflict to be solved by force. We won’t.”
Putin said that we will not allow the humanitarian disaster so Russia sends insane amounts of humanitarian cargoes. Of course I understand everything. But I have a different question.(you said) “Donbass mustn’t feel itself betrayed.” More than… well… a million people have arrived here from Donbass. Half of them are men. No-one knows what are they doing here. Well take arms and go defend your motherland. Because it’s like you want us to arrive and die, fight for you, (crowd applauds) And you arrive here and say (pretends to be an ape) “Gimme…We are refugees.” Wait a minute, Is this your Motherland? Then fight it back. But if it’s “Give me shit, give me spoon, teach me how to eat it”, it’s something new. It’s just that people should realise some responsibility for the decisions (they have made).”
So the message is pretty clear. Be grateful for what the RF has done for you and accept that we know best.

The Reality- the Bitter Truth of Proxy Wars.
The sad truth lurking behind the Donbass war is that despite the sincerity of many of the combatants, the war was a proxy war and only one strand in a widespread power struggle between the Western war party and the Russian Federation.
The only correct policy for a mid-sized and strategically placed nation such as the Ukraine is to never ever accept that you must choose sides but seek to have positive relationships, with both the EU/West and the Russian Federation. The Ukraine should never allow itself to be drawn into either camp but should seek positive relations with both at all times.

The people of the Donbass region have suffered terribly and the sad fact is that they are and will remain trapped between the interests of the great powers engaged in the current power struggle in Eastern Europe.

The Donbass War Restarting: Peski Clashes

(Eng Subs) Clashes in Peski.

Destroyed Ukraine military hardware and the bodies of slain soldiers near Debaltseve. February, 2015.
Destroyed Ukraine military hardware and the bodies of slain soldiers near Debaltseve. February, 2015.

March 24th, 2015.

The Donbass War Restarting.

Sadly it appears that the Donbass War is restarting. That the Ukraine Government was simply trying to buy time, lick their wounds and plead for more money from their Western sponsors.

The Clashes are now persistent and intensifying and the Novorussian forces are now apparently conducting their own offensive guerrilla operations in response to the Ukraine Forces constant provocations. as this Kazzura video seems to indicate.

[eng subs] Recon by fire mission in Shirokino. 14/03/15, combat footage by “Khrustalik”

The best thing obviously would be for the war to end and never restart and for the Novorussians and the Ukraine Government to come to an amicable and political long term solution.

Some Western commentators opine that Russia has invaded East Ukraine and is trying to seize the Donbass region and that is simply not the case. Russia has no intent whatsoever to allow the Donbass to formally break from the Ukraine. Russia’s goal is simple, they want the Ukraine not to join NATO, the Novorussian forces and the people of the Donbass are essentially Russia’s willing and able counterweight to the Kiev Western puppets.

Russia has clearly provided material to the Novorussian forces but it has actually been very little.

The Official Russian Military budget is over $40 billion a year whereas the Ukraine Military budget is less than two. The nation is going broke and the support from the West has almost all been rhetorical.

NATO do not want to fight a war against Russia. Bullying thugs will never ever assail an enemy with real claws, ever. The whole fabricated “Russia” threat is just a fund raising exercise and relevance renewal for NATO. It is a scam. Russia is going to get a “colour revolution” whether they like it or not. There is no other way.

NATO has nowhere near the size nor quality of forces to even dream of launching actual offensive operations against Russian territory and the same is vice versa. It is a non-starter with devastating, unbearable losses on both sides inevitable.

Presumably this will play out in much the same way as the past two cease fires. The fighting will become more open, the Novorussians will win a small but significant territorial gain. The French  and Germans will again plead with Poroshenko to stop and at some point he will presumably listen.

What they need to understand is that they are not going to achieve anything because Russia can turn up the support to the Novorussian ten or even one hundred times what the support is today. They are providing the bare minimum and are capable of boosting the support to whatever level required to hold the strongholds of Luhansk and Donetsk, no matter how much support from the West the Ukraine receives .

NATO, perhaps due to the level of corruption in Kiev, has actually pledged very little financial military support to the Ukraine forces who will remain out-thought and out gunned, no matter what NATO does and should therefore stop the nonsense, accept their losses and try and get on with rebuilding the Ukrainian state and the economy.

eng subs] OSCE motorcade got under fire in Shirokino

Destroyed Ukraine military vehicle with dead Ukraine soldier on the outskirts of Debalstseva. This is how it ended.
Destroyed Ukraine military vehicle with dead Ukraine soldier on the outskirts of Debalstseva. This is how it ended.

The Penny Begins to Drop.

IS The Official Enemy
IS The Official Enemy
The real target.
The real target is Syria..

The Penny Begins to Drop
September 10th, 2014.

It was after reading an article in the Guardian that the penny began to drop. It was Ian Black’s piece from September 4th “Bashar al-Assad’s pitch for anti-Isis pact with west falls on closed ears” that especially caught my eye.

“Signals from Washington suggest the US, with NATO or Arab help, would not face insurmountable difficulties mounting air strikes against Isis in Syria. Experts say talk of a “formidable” air defence system is exaggerated. The fact that US special forces were able to infiltrate Syria by air this summer in an unsuccessful mission to free hostages suggests it is less than effective. And Israel, an intimate US ally, is likely to have real-time intelligence it would gladly share with the Americans. Syria also has a record of thinking carefully before retaliating.
“Assad will not welcome US-led air strikes on Isis on either side of the now irrelevant border between Syria and Iraq – unless they form part of a western rapprochement with him. Attacks will strengthen his opponents because the jihadis now control territory seized from other Syrian rebels. But he may not be able to stop them. The Damascus regime “will continue to view (Isis) as a useful tool for its survival,” argues the exiled Syrian commentator Hassan Hassan.”

What madness it seemed to me, to risk the lives of US soldiers and pilots despite the Syrian government offer of co-operation. Why deal with the “not insurmountable” Syrian Air Defence Systems of a state that welcomed your intervention?

Conspiracy Farce.

As far as the ridiculous conspiracy theory about the Syrians running IS. They should be consigned to the dustbin of history where they belong.

The Last Walk of Syrian Soldiers of the Tabaqa Airbase before Execution by ISIS

Syria clearly remains a key Cabal target and the immediate underlying purpose of the War against the IS group may be the violent overthrow of the Assad Ba’ath party government in Syria.
It sounds ridiculous, it is so illogical, but this is how I fear they are edging towards playing this, and this explains the bizarre resort to blatant psychological operations in the West, especially considering the many very real crimes the group have committed/ against a variety of groups in Iraq and Syria.

This seems to be the best explanation for all the ridiculous hype, with the entire Global War on terror being relaunched with IS as the new Flag bearers of the “menace”. The possibility that these fake beheadings and relentless hype are in preparation for a False Flag attack attributed to the IS cannot be excluded but is highly unlikely. Obviously there are also many long-term “police state and surveillance” goals that are also being served by this hype.
Another 911 is simply impossible in the newly diversified and hostile media landscape. Even relatively small events like Boston and Sandy Hook completely unraveled . The bigger and more complex the event the harder it becomes for psychological operations to succeed.
It is far more likely that this tool is going to be used to engage in a War against Syria, a war of absolute madness as even if they succeeded (highly unlikely given Iranian and Russian position) they would undoubtedly be destroying the modern Syrian state just as they have destroyed Libya and leaving groups of jihadists to vie for power, as is happening today in Libya. .
Through a couple of sneaky steps and a routine manipulation of the facts , the War against IS in Iraq morphs into a war against the IS in Syria, which soon morphs into War against the Syrian government.

The only way it will be safe for our aircraft to bomb the IS in Syria therefore will be to bomb the Syrian Air Defence Systems, which means also bombing Military Command and Control Facilities, which morphs easily into simply trying to wipe out the Syrian Government from the air as they did successfully to the government of Libya. You add the leaders of the State to the target list, and eliminate them. The fact that Libya has genuinely descended into a Somalia style failed state apparently does not trouble these serial vandals and pathological arsonists.

Still from the fake Foley execution..
Still from the fake Foley execution..

Outline of a Plot.

So we have to establish the IS as the worst thing since unsliced bread, (or at least al Qaeda) We have to establish this brand as being an immediate threat to Westerners via the Western recruits and the hoax beheading films.
Once we establish the brand, we begin to attack them in Iraq. Not a concerted or intense campaign, just enough to prevent them holding or attacking specific areas (Mosul Dam and Irbil are the obvious examples) Iraq has been “done”, there is no state left to destroy. Iraq is the end product, the goal. A weak, chronically divided state . Iraq is only a means to another end now.
At some point you state that in order to really “end the IS threat” we will have to attack their Syrian strongholds also. It will then be decided that we the wonderful enlightened West cannot possibly co-operate with Syrian government who have actually been under severe jihadist attack via arms and fighters funneled into Syria by the West and their allies over the past four years..
Four solid years of blatant propaganda cannot be left to waste. Therefore we must bomb IS in Syria and we must not co-operate with the “beastly” Syrian government despite their offer to put all that aside and work with us against the IS.
So using some sleight of hand and some liberally applied sophistry, the IS threat gets them to their long-term goal. They came within days of achieving their goal of directing the US air force against Syria exactly a year ago. Hundreds of Syrian civilians were murdered in the false flag chemical attack that was used to achieve that. But they failed. The Russians outwitted them basically.
Syria’s decision to dispose of its entire Chemical weapons stockpile in return for not being bombed by the US didn’t get Assad off the “list” far from it. It only saw Putin himself elevated to a more “urgent” position.
Two months after the al Ghouta false flag failed to get Syria bombed after Russian diplomatic intervention the protests begin on the Maidan in Kiev.

Sources.

David Cameron must ‘consider cooperating with Syria’ to crush Isis | Politics | theguardian.com
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/05/david-cameron-syria-crush-isis-lord-richards-nato

Do you support military action against Isis? | World news | theguardian.com
http://www.theguardian.com/world/poll/2014/sep/05/isis-military-action-nato-us

Bashar al-Assad’s pitch for anti-Isis pact with west falls on closed ears | World news | The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/04/assad-anti-isis-pact-west-cameron-syria

Seymour M. Hersh · The Red Line and the Rat Line: Erdoğan and the Syrian rebels · LRB 17 April 2014
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n08/seymour-m-hersh/the-red-line-and-the-rat-line