November 4th, 2020.
Trump Heading for ANOTHER Shock Victory.
All indications are that the sitting US President will secure a narrow victory and a second term in another shock result confounding the polls.
It appears that the result will not be declared for some time, none of the major networks are declaring a result.
However by simply adding together the electoral college votes for the states in which the President holds a major lead, the Trump Pence ticket has an all but certain electoral college majority.
United States Electoral College
These are the states that the media consensus is a Trump victory:
These states add up to 167 electoral college votes, still 103 short of the required 270 majority of the 538 total.
These are the additional states that I project Trump to win:
Texas- Trump currently leads Texas by 5.8% (52.2% to Biden’s 46.4%) with 78% of the votes counted.
Those are 38 of the 103 electoral college votes Trump needs for a majority, bringing the total to 205, leaving an additional 65 required.
Wisconsin- In Wisconsin Trump leads by almost 5% (51.7% to Biden’s 46.8%) with 90% of the votes counted.
That is an additional 10 (215) leaving Trump 55 short of the required 270.
North Carolina- The position on North Carolina is a confusing one. Real Clear Politics has 100% of the votes counted, Trump having received 50.1% of the vote and Biden 48.7%. Yet they have not allocated the state to either candidate?!?
That is another 15 votes, (230) leaving Trump 40 short of a majority.
In Georgia, Trump leads by more than 7% with 81% of the votes counted (53.1% to 45.7%), Georgia holds another 16 votes (246) – leaving Trump 24 short of a majority.
In Michigan, Trump enjoys a lead of almost 10% (53.9% to Biden’s 44%), only 54% of the votes have been counted, understandable that the big media won’t call this but all available data points to a Trump victory.
If Trump prevails in Michigan, an overwhelmingly likely but not certain result, that is another 16 electoral college votes (262), leaving Trump 8 short of a majority.
At that point if Trump wins Nevada and Alaska he wins the election without even having to bring Pennsylvania into the equation and Trump is on track for a crushing victory in Pennsylvania, leading by more than 12.6% (Biden 43.1%-Trump 55.7%) with 75% of the votes counted.
Pennsylvania holds 20 votes.
In Nevada counting, Biden is leading. All the Alaska polls point to an overwhelming Trump victory.
In order for Biden to win he must win Pennsylvania plus Nevada, no other path to victory exists for him.
It is too early to be certain but the only logical conclusion from the available data is a narrow victory for Trump.
All information was taken from realclearpolitics, a relatively neutral source in the circumstances.
Updated: 10.51 UTC November 4th.
Wisconsin turnaround gives Biden a realistic path to victory, albeit unlikely.
Now, after 98% of the votes have been counted, Biden is ahead in Wisconsin, changing the equation and placing the result in further doubt.
It is noteworthy that Biden was fully 5% in arrears at the 90% mark, but pulled ahead after another 8% were counted. In order for that to happen virtually ever single one of those 8% must have been Biden votes.
If the same type of minor miracle could be achieved in Michigan or Pennsylvania, and he stays ahead in Nevada, Biden could achieve victory.
The media give Biden 238 guaranteed votes, he will win Nevada, that gets him to 244, if he wins Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (16) Biden gets the 270 required for victory.
A Pennsylvania miracle and Biden wins going away.
But there is simply no reason to believe that Biden would win all those too close to call states in which he trails either heavily or very late in the count.
It is not certain even that he will win Wisconsin, it is now one of the tightest races of those still in play.
If Biden somehow manages to win all these too close to call states in which he trails, he will win, but there is no logical reason to believe that will happen.
Updated:13:08 UTC November 4th.
Biden won Wisconsin and shredded the lead in Michigan.
They are calling it a “red mirage” apparently. So it was that Biden went from trailing by 5% with 90% counted in Wisconsin and won, with 91% now counted in Michigan, although still trailing, Biden has closed to within .3% trailing 49.1 to Trump’s 49.4%.
A Michigan victory gets Biden over the line. Incredibly, he must now be regarded as the overwhelming favourite to win the election, dependent on Michigan where he still trails but has closed so heavily in the “late counted votes’ that he appears to be on a trajectory to win the state and with it the Presidency.
Biden: We believe we are on track to win the election
Trump speaks at the White House as vote count continues
Disclaimer- These are two corrupt front-men of gangster clans fighting over who gets to lie, cheat and bilk the long suffering American people for the next four years.
The election is an overwhelmingly meaningless event. Large scale indirect democracy is a con and a sham.
DONALD TRUMP FOOLED THE ENTIRE WORLD
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