July 12th, 2015..

The Situation.

The situation appears to be that the people of the Donbass region are trapped within the reality that Russia has achieved it’s goals and is seeking to move on from the Ukraine crisis whilst the Ukraine Government and their Western backers remain enraged by the many humiliations the Russian President has inflicted upon them over the past several years and are not willing to let the war come to an end.

The lives and interests of the people of the Donbass are clearly of secondary interest to all external parties to the conflict.

Dejan Beric interview on situation in DPR

The best recent explanation for what is currently happening is contained in this short video made by a Novorussian Serbian volunteer named Dejan Beric

The Minsk II agreement is being broken, the ceasefire never really happened, and at least two hundred deaths have occurred since the Minsk II agreement came into place, but intense fighting is largely confined to two small areas, the villages of Marinka and Shirokino are partially held by both sides and the combatants are very close, within only hundreds of metres of each other.
Dejan Beric explains that shelling is taking place right across the contact line but the intense fighting is largely confined to these areas.

Ukraine: “Heavy weapons spotted in gov-controlled areas”- OSCE chief

Even the OCSE sleepwalkers recently noticed that the Ukraine military have violated the Minsk accords by returning their heavy weaponry to the front lines and using it with resultant civilian deaths.

Deputy Chief of the OCSE team Alexander Hug had a curious choice of words to describe the situation.
“This build up of heavy weapons along the contact lines also leads to more destruction deaths and injuries to the civilian population.”
It is strange choice of words because it refers to the “build up” of Weapons as being the cause of the damage rather than their use.

[eng subs] “Vostok” brigade soldier Niemets [German] appeal to DPR command

When the large scale fighting ended in February the forces of Novorussia were achieving significant gains and causing severe losses to the Ukraine military. In the post Minsk 2 fighting the Ukraine military appear to have the initiative, previously secure positions of the DPR such as Donetsk Airport have come under renewed attack in recent weeks.
This sad video made by a German member of the Vostok battalion called “Niemets” alludes to a lack of training as the cause for the “results that have been seen.” as the soldier pleads for better training from the leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The Dawning of a Bitter Reality.

It seems to be slowly sinking in that the gains the Novorussian rebels made were highly dependent on the support of the Russian Federation and the RF has achieved all it needs in Eastern Ukraine, the RF now has the ability to prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO by either military or political means.

This appears to have been the goal of the Russian federation all along as indicated by their actions and so all the talk about the “new Hitler’ Putin “threatening Europe” with aggression was simply the typically “broad” and infantile Western propaganda nonsense heard on almost every issue from the controlled media.

[eng subs] Putin’s childhood friend, now living in Gorlovka: “RF has betrayed us, UA leave us alone”

The Opinion of Putin’s Childhood Friend.
In recent weeks a video appeared on the Kazzura Youtube channel titled “Putin’s childhood friend now living in Gorlovka RF has betrayed us, UA leave us alone” The video features an interview with a former Putin friend and schoolmate named Vladimir Alexandrovich Venzin.
The majority of the interview is an unremarkable retelling of Venzin’s connection with Putin, with the information that Putin wanted to be a spy as very young boy the only memorable part.

In the last quarter of the interview the subject matter changes to current events.

“Well, I have always been proud of my acquaintance with Volodya (Vladimir Putin) of our friendship. Just a year ago it was like that.”

“Now my opinion about him has changed dramatically of course. And it’s not just my opinion that has changed but that of all Donetsk residents. If just a year ago people were praising him like some god, then now people are cursing him. Because he has provoked such a situation here, provoked a war. A very real, full scale war and then “fled into the bushes.”
“If you compare what he said in spring 2014 to what he says now.. It’s like two completely different people.. It just hurt that we were used as cover for the operation of the“annexation of Crimea.”
“They just used people “in blind” as it is called. “
“But this, I think it’s dishonourable from Russia.and whereas a year ago we would all switch our television’s on every day waiting to hear that that Russia has started sending it’s troops.”
“Today people simply spit whenever they hear the name of Russia. Because Russia has betrayed Donbass.
Whereas a year ago people said that “Russia does not abandon it’s people.” then now they’re silent “as loud as possible.” about it.” (They speak loudly of other subjects to avoid mentioning this unpleasant truth)
This stunning denunciation is followed by an analysis of the motives behind the change.

“There might be many reasons here, his (Putin’s) rhetoric has changed dramatically….maybe some Russian oligarchs are pressing him or perhaps he submitted to the blackmail from the United States?
That is unlikely however as he is quite a strong willed person.. I do not know the reasons nor do I want to guess about them.”

The Interview Concludes with Vladimir Alexandrovich Venzin making a plea for Russian military assistance and a denunciation of the Ukraine Government.

“The situation is critical. Diplomatic measures do not help here. It should be done like Abkhazia here.” (Abkhazia is the largely unrecognised breakaway pro-Russian republic that is formally part of Georgia that Georgia attacked in 2008 following extensive provocation, enabling a crushing Russian military response where the RF Air force destroyed the military forces of Georgia over several weeks of a completely one sided battle. In the Ukraine this would translate as the Russian Air Force destroying all the Ukraine military units East of Kiev. The leader of Georgia at the time of the 2008 Abkhazia war was Mikheil Saakashvili now bizarrely appointed the Governor of Odessa oblast, presumably on the recommendation of the USA.)
“I’d like to appeal to all Ukrainians: Leave us alone. Let us live as we want. This is not your land, it is our land and you got it only due to a mistake thanks to “Grandpa Lenin”.“

[eng subs] Vladimir Solovyov explains RF policy and situation with Donbass/refugees

The Response from the Russian federation to the Perception of Betrayal.
Vladimir Solovyov is a prominent Russian television host and journalist with a perceived closeness to the Russian Government. Solovykov recently hosted a town hall meeting for refugees from the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine. This video is also from the Kazzura channel.
The important part of the video begins with a geeky looking young man asking Solokyov a question.suggesting that the reunion of the Donetsk residents in Russia is simply:

“Basically how (to make) it so tha Donbass residents do not feel themselves betrayed?”

Vladimir Solovyov  “You see, this is such an interesting phrase. First of all no-one betrayed them as no-one has promised them anything yet. These are crucial moments which people are imagining things to themselves. Putin said that we will not allow the conflict to be solved by force. We won’t.”
Putin said that we will not allow the humanitarian disaster so Russia sends insane amounts of humanitarian cargoes. Of course I understand everything. But I have a different question.(you said) “Donbass mustn’t feel itself betrayed.” More than… well… a million people have arrived here from Donbass. Half of them are men. No-one knows what are they doing here. Well take arms and go defend your motherland. Because it’s like you want us to arrive and die, fight for you, (crowd applauds) And you arrive here and say (pretends to be an ape) “Gimme…We are refugees.” Wait a minute, Is this your Motherland? Then fight it back. But if it’s “Give me shit, give me spoon, teach me how to eat it”, it’s something new. It’s just that people should realise some responsibility for the decisions (they have made).”
So the message is pretty clear. Be grateful for what the RF has done for you and accept that we know best.

The Reality- the Bitter Truth of Proxy Wars.
The sad truth lurking behind the Donbass war is that despite the sincerity of many of the combatants, the war was a proxy war and only one strand in a widespread power struggle between the Western war party and the Russian Federation.
The only correct policy for a mid-sized and strategically placed nation such as the Ukraine is to never ever accept that you must choose sides but seek to have positive relationships, with both the EU/West and the Russian Federation. The Ukraine should never allow itself to be drawn into either camp but should seek positive relations with both at all times.

The people of the Donbass region have suffered terribly and the sad fact is that they are and will remain trapped between the interests of the great powers engaged in the current power struggle in Eastern Europe.